18 Thoughts/Opinions/Facts on the 152nd Open Championship

1. Let’s start with the name of this Tournament. In prior entries I have taken great pains to refer to this as the British Open rather than THE Open. I will continue to do so regardless of what the Royal & Ancient Jackasses ram down everyone’s throat. I only make the concession in the article title above for search purposes. The R&A’s contention is that when the Tournament began in 1860 there were no other Opens in which to be confused. Thus, no qualifier was needed. On this, they are undoubtedly correct. The thing about that is, and feel free to consult a 5th grade history book to check my work, times change. You can identify about as many nations which sponsor a national open today than do not. Much to the consternation of the anti-dentites there is a massive country to its west (which is undefeated in World Wars and has won dozens of SEC Championships) that recently held an Open of equal or greater importance. Then you have the dubious bragging point that “our Open is open to the world”. From a qualifying site point of view, there is a grain of truth to that. I’ve never been quite clear how 26 handicap Kasun Jayalath in Sri Lanka having access proves anything though. Besides, US Open qualifying is much more “democratic”. Only about 10% of the British field (16 players) are drawn from this trumped up “open to the world” B.S. The US Open field had over 60 participants from Final Qualifying—one of which took place in Japan and another in England. If you have a handicap not exceeding .4, you can enter. Yes, anywhere in the world. You know how on Sunday Night Football the players announce themselves and their alma mater? And Buckeye alums are always saying “THE Ohio State University”? Well, that is true! It is THE Ohio state University. The public land-grant at that. See, THE means its the only one. There is a US Open and there is a British Open. Both are Major Championships. Neither is “THE”. Glad to clear that up for you.

2. Now that we have napalmed that semantic game of three-card monte, we can get into some golf! The skinny on British Open history: The first Open (see, now we can mostly dispense with the British prefix going forward within this piece as there is no question which Open is being referenced) and the ensuing eleven were held at Prestwick Golf Club on the west coast of Scotland 35 miles south of Glasgow. The course consisted of 12 holes at the time with a reported measurement of 3,799 yards and for the first Open eight players completed three circuits on a single day in October. The winner was Willie Park, Sr by two over Old Tom Morris returning a 174. Best I can tell no money was awarded to the winner. However (and I love this) the Champion would take possession of the coveted “Challenge Belt” made of red leather and adorned with a silver buckle. It doesn’t sound quite as glorious as the Big Gold Belt now does it. Well, either way it was worth about £25 and it was further decided that should a golfer manage to win three consecutive Opens they would be entitled to keep the belt, effectively retiring it. That would prove to be hilariously problematic in due time. In 1863 a purse of £10 was created that was split between 2nd, 3rd, and 4th (the Champ was stuck with that belt) and then in 1864 the winner cashed as well. Here is where it gets good—from 1868 to 1870 Young Tom Morris won all three years meaning he kept the belt as described above. Somehow that didn’t occur to anyone in 1871 until it was too late. Because there was no trophy to play for they just said screw it and didn’t have an Open at all. Imagine the lead up to that realization. Allow if you will a brief play reenacting the events as they may or may not have happened.

Scene: Musselburgh Links—Honourable Company of Edinburgh Douchebags

(Man bursts into the office gasping for air)

“My Lord! Its horrible!”

(Behind a desk, Chaplain Fauntleroy remains calm but is aghast at his compatriots lack of decorum)

“My God, Alasdair! Get ahold of yourself, Chap! What is amiss?”

(After taking a quaff of sherry) “My Lord, no Open Championship has been scheduled and indeed, it’s nearly bloody Hallows Eve!”

(Fauntleroy is rattled and takes a long pull from a flask of indeterminate contents—keep in mind it is 9AM)

“I see. We should have assigned a committee post haste. At any rate Alasdair, I’m counting on you to prevent an unpardonable gap on our Wikipedia page!”

“That’s just it, Lord Fauntleroy—Young Tom Morris has the belt. We have no bloody trophy to play for!”

(For the first time Fauntleroy loses his poise slamming his fist on the African blackwood desk) “So go down to Custom Trophies and compel blacksmith Gargery to forge one!”

(Alasdair looks away bitterly) “There is no time, my Lord…”

(Fauntleroy empties his flask) “Well, we have no American players anyway. Perhaps next year. It’s time for tea and my weekly game of lawn bowling.”

In the interim of this rather embarrassing display, the fabled Claret Jug was born. To I am sure no surprise to the reader, the Jug was not completed in time for the 1872 Open winner presentation (Young Tom Morris again). Morris was given a medal instead which is a practice that continues today. However, his name was retroactively engraved on the Jug which by all appearances gives the impression he was the first winner. I’ll be damned if I will ever understand this. Wouldn’t you want the trophy to capture every winner? I think I would try to figure out a way to remedy that even today. But I’m the kind of guy that would play Super Mario Galaxy for 7 months to get all 120 Power Stars.

3. In 1892, the Open moved to four 18 hole rounds over two days. Prestwick was now an 18 hole course and a “rota” had been established starting in 1873 alternating between Prestwick, St Andrews, and Musselburgh. Muirfield replaced Musselburgh in that year of 1892, St George’s was added in 1894, and finally Royal Liverpool (known colloquially as Hoylake) in 1897. Prestwick, after hosting 24 Open’s (2nd only to St Andrews’ 30) was dropped from the rota after 1925 never to return primarily due to its cramped nature being unable to accommodate large galleries and was replaced with Carnoustie. The site of this years Open, Royal Troon (it did not have the “Royal” title yet which would come in 1978), first hosted in 1923 but did not host again until 1950 and did not become a regular on the rota until 1962. In 1920, following a sabbatical due to World War I, the R&A took over all administration of the Open eventually putting in place the format that is roughly used today, namely qualifying and a 36 hole cut in 1926. The Tournament that year was held at Royal Lytham as it was added to the rota for the first time.

4. 14 courses in Scotland, England, and Northern Ireland have hosted the Open. Those are with number of times hosted in parentheses—Scotland: Old Course at St. Andrews (30), Prestwick Golf Club (24), Muirfield (16), Royal Troon (9, soon to be 10), Carnoustie Golf Links (8), Musselburgh Links (6), and Turnberry (4). England: Royal St George’s (15), Royal Liverpool (13), Royal Lytham & St Annes (11), Royal Birkdale (10), Royal Cinque Ports (2), and Prince’s (1). Northern Ireland: Royal Portrush (2). Of these 14 courses, four have been retired and are no longer in use—Prestwick, Musselburgh, Royal Cinque, and Prince’s. A fifth, Turnberry, was purchased by Donald Trump in 2014 and is what could best be described as in “time out” presumably not hosting again until he sells or is dead. Which… you all saw what transpired. If you don’t understand why it happened and who is responsible OR you choose to rationalize the effort you need to be very clear on something—the bell is tolling for thee. Anyway that means that the R&A currently has nine sites to draw from, plenty enough given the geographical scale of the United Kingdom. The USGA has copied this idea to an extent with the “anchor courses” initiative which we discussed last month. Frankly, this is a good idea that was lifted from our British brethren. I don’t care much for two of the four anchors (Pinehurst and Oakmont) but there are only so many top level sites willing to open their doors. 7-10 courses are more than sufficient (assuming you pick the right ones of those available) even in a vast country like the USA.

5. The Open history at Troon has been quite productive for the Red, White, and Blue. Of the nine held there, six straight were won by Americans from 1962 through 2004—Arnold Palmer 1962, Tom Weiskopf 1973, Tom Watson 1982, Mark Calcavecchia 1989, Justin Leonard 1997, and Todd Hamilton 2004. It coulda, woulda, shoulda been seven straight in 2016 when Phil Mickelson shot a 17 under 267 which at the time would have won every 72 hole Open in history except 1993 when it would have tied Greg Norman. Unfortunately for Mickelson, Henrik Stenson was even hotter and beat him by three strokes at 20 under 264. Their final 36 holes harkened memories of Nicklaus/Watson in the “Duel in the Sun” at Turnberry in 1977. Mickelson finished 11 strokes clear of 3rd place J.B. Holmes and Stenson was 14 ahead. By comparison 1977 runner up Nicklaus was 10 ahead of 3rd place Hubert Green with Watson 1 stroke better. Other notable facts pertinent to Americans at Troon: 1) Palmer’s win in ‘62 was a 6 stroke rout and his second Open in a row. He had won The Masters the prior Spring. 2) Weiskopf was a wire to wire winner in ‘73 and his 12 under 276 matched the Open record set by Palmer on this course in the Open here eleven years prior. 3) Watson came from 3 strokes back after 54 holes in ‘82 to become the 5th player to win the U.S. and British in the same year following up his win at Pebble Beach the month before. 4) Calcavecchia won his only Major in a playoff over Wayne Grady and Greg Norman in ‘89. This was the first British playoff in 14 years and the first to employ a four hole aggregate as opposed to an 18 hole playoff the next day. 5) Leonard made miles of putts on Sunday in ‘97 to the tune of eight birdies and rallied from 5 strokes back surpassing 3rd round leader Jesper Parnevik. 6) Mostly unknown Todd Hamilton ranked 56th in the world, who had his only other Tour win that March at the Honda, shocked 2nd ranked Ernie Els in a playoff. Hamilton T15’d at Augusta in ‘09 five years later, the only other time he was in the top 30 of a Major in 39 starts.

6. From a scoring point of view, Troon ranks somewhere around the bottom third relative to difficulty within the current rota. It should be said this ultimately hinges on weather and wind for any Open but the numbers are what they are. Winning scores in order from the first played here in 1923 were 295 (par was not assigned), 279 (-1), 276 (-12), 276 (-12), 284 (-4), 275 (-13), 272 (-12), 274 (-10), and 264 (-20). If we throw out the extremes of 295 from the first year and 264 from the most recent we are left with an average of 276.6 or 9 under par. To take one course for comparison, over ten Opens Royal Birkdale has had an average winning score of 279 or 7 under par. Maybe a better barometer of difficulty is the cutline which reflects more the median of all players. Those 36 hole cuts have been since 1950 (there was no cut in 1923): +8, +8, +8, +8, +2, +5, +3, and +4. So you figure with “normal” British weather 10 to 12 under could very well win it with a cut of +4. If it’s somehow calm all four days then look for a Valhalla type assault with the 20 under record falling.

7. Royal Troon lies adjacent to the Firth of Clyde which is a Scottish way to describe an estuary, in this case of the River Clyde. The Firth’s waters by definition are brackish and usually considered part of the Irish Sea. Like all British Open courses, Troon is a true links and you should keep in mind that not all golf courses are considered “links” even if it is located on the water. A good way to think of it is the area that “links” the mainland and sea. Or the land from which the sea has receded, leaving shifting sandhills and duneland. These areas are extremely undulating and sandy with no arability. Unsuitable for any economic endeavor it became ideal real estate for a recreational activity. Without getting much further into the weeds (and some people are very anal about this) a links course is characterized by three main factors—1) Along the coast of an ocean or sea 2) Sandy soil that needs little to no irrigation resulting in very firm turf 3) Few if any trees which when coupled with being on the water makes wind the decisive defense of par. Another feature is the concept of “out” and “in” which you will see on any scorecard at all courses. For a links course, “out” meant along the sea in one direction then returning “in” the opposite. Ideally that would mean contending with contrasting winds in each half of the round. There are very few true links courses beyond the British Isles. In America, three that are thought to be links because they are seaside but are not if strictly defined are Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines, and The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island to name a few. Whistling Straits in Wisconsin might be closest to an ideal links but is on Lake Michigan which is freshwater. Conventional thought among golf architect purists is that only four courses in the USA meet all the requirements of links golf and every last one is on the same resort—Bandon Dunes in tiny and remote northwest Oregon off the mighty Pacific.

8. Royal Troon is only about 5 miles north from the original Open home of Prestwick. Colin Montgomerie grew up a 4 iron or so from the course and learned the game on the children’s course there. His father James was Secretary of the Club for eleven years in the 80’s and 90’s. From a viewing perspective there are a few things you can expect: The course is scheduled to play at 7,190 yards which is equal to 2016 but nine new tees have been installed that can add up to 200 yards so this is fluid depending on tee markers. Players will hope to get off to a good start as the first six holes are in a straight line south, with the prevailing wind at their back, and relatively wide open. As the course moves inland at 7 the player will be faced with much denser gorse and blind tee shots on 10 and 11. The homestretch is long, running north next to holes 1 through 6 into the teeth of the wind. One of the shortest holes in all of Major Championship golf is the 123 yard 8th, deemed the “Postage Stamp” due to its length and Lilliputian green. The tee is perched over a gully with a similar perspective as the 7th at Pebble Beach. Bunkers with vertical lips guard the right, a monstrous bunker protects the front, and still two more bunkers loom on the left. There is no bailout anywhere—you must hold the green on the fly. This is no easy task even with a wedge in your hand. Measuring only about 420 square feet, we are talking about a green 10 paces wide and maybe 3 times that deep. Sort of the reciprocal of Augusta’s 12th. A round changing hole, expect to see a lot of 2’s but a fair share of 6’s. Aces have been made notably by a 71 year old Gene Sarazen in 1973. The highest score ever recorded in Open play was a 15 by a German player named Hermann Tissies in 1950.

9. British Open records and facts interesting maybe only to me:

   A) The oldest winner was Old Tom Morris at 46 in 1867. The youngest winner was his son, Young Tom at age 17 the following year. If we throw out the Morris duo, the oldest champion was Roberto De Vicenzo at 44 in 1967 and the youngest was Seve Ballesteros at 22 in 1979.

   B) If measured by wins the British Open was the least successful Major for Jack Nicklaus with three victories. As it usually happens with Nicklaus that hardly is indicative of indifferent play across the pond. He also recorded seven runner up finishes and get this—from 1963 to 1980 he was in the top ten in 17 of 18 Tournaments. Over that same period he was in the top five in SIXTEEN OF EIGHTEEN. Remember that the next time one of the sheep get going on the Eldrick Woods is the GOAT routine. Any way you look at it Jack Nicklaus was the best.

   C) The British Open has been won by Americans less often than any of the four Majors for a number of obvious reasons. The first American native to claim victory here was Walter Hagen in 1922. He would go on to win three more times in addition to seven other Majors for a total of eleven which trails only Nicklaus and Woods all time. He never won The Masters however as it came about outside of his prime window, only competing four times. Only thirty other American males have won the Claret Jug, some multiple times. This is rare air indeed and an elite list to be on in addition to winning a Major. The most successful stretch for American golf here was between 1970 and 1983 with eleven victories in fourteen years. Tom Watson had five of those including three of four between 1980 and 1983.

   D) The most Open wins record is six by Englishman Harry Vardon (who actually was born and raised on the Channel Island of Jersey just off the French coast). Vardon played in two US Opens, winning the sixth edition in 1900 then remarkably finishing 2nd at age 50 in 1920, 1 stroke back of Ted Ray. Four other golfers claimed 5 victories—James Braid, John Henry Tyler, Peter Thomson, and Tom Watson.

   E) The record for largest margin of victory at any Major was 14 strokes by Old Tom Morris in 1862. That unbreakable record stood for 138 years until the impossible happened and Tiger Woods obliterated the field by 15 at Pebble Beach in 2000. Don’t ever say I don’t give the man credit when it’s due.

   F) In 1963 at Royal Lytham Bob Charles became the first player to win a professional Major hailing from New Zealand. And? He was also our first southpaw Major champion.

   G) Gary Player holds the record for most Open starts with 46. He is also the only golfer in the 20th century with victories in three different decades—1959, 1968, and 1974.

   H) The British is somewhat infamous for producing fluke winners. Some of the most unlikely champions and their world rank at the time are: John Daly #109 in 1995, Paul Lawrie #159 in 1999, Ben Curtis #396 in 2003, and Darren Clarke #111 in 2011.

10. They have a saying in Britain that goes something like, “if it’s nae wind and nae rain then it’s nae golf”. For the British links courses, especially St Andrews, the elements are critical if you prefer the leaderboard not drowning in red ink like The Texas Chainsaw Massacre broke out. Current forecasts, which in Scotland are as accurate as an Iraqi Scud missile, call for mild temps in the low 60’s with a 50-50 chance of rain on Thursday, Friday and Sunday but relatively calm wind all four days. Be sure to understand that this being Monday it’s almost not worth mentioning. But if the wind holds off a record breaking 72 hole score is on the table. Esteemed golf scribe Geoff Shackleford reports this however from a local caddy: “The rough is the worst I've seen it in years. The greenkeepers are saying they spent the last two or three years trying to thin out the rough, to get it more playable, and then the R&A come along and say, oh, “we're a bit worried you could grow it up?” But to be honest, looking at the courses next door—the Portland course and the municipal courses—the rough was going to be horrendous this year no matter what. We had a very wet winter and then quite a mild spring, and in the space of two weeks it just went nuts. So for Troon it's pretty thick stuff out there.” I’ll tell you right now, I don’t buy it. That’s exactly what was said about Valhalla and the players massacred the place as you know. Troon is a far different deal with nowhere near the fairway width but these guys are going to take apart any place that’s soft.

11. In previous previews I have claimed to the reader I haven’t missed a Masters or US Open Sunday since 1987 and precious few PGA’s. That is definitely not the case with the British as I may have skipped as many as I’ve watched. There is only one reason for that and it’s the time difference. For the most part over that time I was in church Sunday morning and if I caught any of it it might be the leaders back nine. That definitely hasn’t been the case the past 14 years or so though. At any rate I still have a good handful of most memorable British Opens.

    A) Muirfield 1992. John Cook was a top 10 player for a few years in the early 90’s and made the 1993 Ryder Cup team which was jaw droppingly the last American team to win in Europe—31 years ago! Anyway, he had a smooth demeanor and I thought he had cool hair so I was a fan. At this particular Open he began Sunday 4 strokes back of leader Nick Faldo. I was in college at the time but on Summer break and working at the Putt-Putt in Bristol, TN. I opened the course at noon and picked up coverage on the back nine where he still trailed by 4. Faldo had evidently fought his swing all day but had managed 10 consecutive pars before starting to leak oil with bogies on 11, 13, and 14. Cook was playing one group ahead and took a two stroke lead with a birdie at 16. He then had a two footer for birdie on 17 for a three stroke lead that probably would have sealed it but it never touched the hole and then he bogied 18. Faldo birdied two of the last four to win by 1. About an hour later my Dad called and said, “John Cook is going to win the British Open!” I was a bit flummoxed knowing it was over and finally figured he must be watching an ABC replay. I wanted to say, “No he isn’t” but I just shook my head grimly so as not to spoil it.

    B) Royal St George’s 1993. I actually didn’t see a shot of this Tournament. My boss secured a tee time at The Virginian for our regular group on the Sunday of the final round. This is a fairly exclusive club but newly opened and was allowing limited play for non members that Summer. It’s the kind of place you wouldn’t turn down at the time. Except my buddy Sid was livid that he “had” to go play. And the reason for that was he couldn’t believe anyone would want to play golf when you could watch golf considering the leaderboard. The lazy logic of that aside this leaderboard was indeed stacked. Corey Pavin, Greg Norman, Bernhard Langer, Nick Price, Wayne Grady, Ernie Els, John Daly, Fred Couples, and Fuzzy Zoeller were all within at worst 5 strokes of Nick Faldo’s lead. Ol’ Sid showed up, ever resourceful, with a portable 9” black and white TV so he could enjoy the action as we played. I never checked the surely snow driven picture but you could definitely hear it. For the record, Norman fired a 64 to run down Faldo and win by 2 in a rare plot twist of their rivalry.

    C) St Andrews 1995. John Daly had taken the golf world by storm four years prior winning the PGA at Crooked Stick, famously as the 9th alternate. This particular British win wasn’t nearly as shocking but it kind of came out of nowhere too. Daly had won twice more on Tour since that PGA but he had developed a nasty habit of packing it in when out of contention. Fans from that era surely remember countless final round scores in the 80’s from Big John. That led to a lot of low finishes and missed cuts that skewed his ranking disproportionate to his talent. Daly led this Open after each of the first two days but stumbled on Saturday with a 73 to fall 4 shots back of Michael Campbell and 2 shy of Constantino Rocca. On Sunday Daly took command early with three birdies on the front as Rocca and Campbell backed up. He had a 3 stroke lead standing on the 16th tee but bogied there and 17 to finish at 6 under. Rocca came to 18 needing a birdie to tie and was set up just short of the green for his second shot which he promptly chunked about 5 yards. That left an uphill, wildly breaking putt of about 70 feet which Rocca obviously jarred for the tie. Speaking of jarring, Daly was shown on a split screen with his third wife Paulette (Daly was 29 at this point) and both were all but celebrating after Rocca’s flubbed chip. After Rocca’s putt dropped you could practically see the souls leave their bodies. If you aren’t a believer in momentum being a factor in sports this was the day for you. Because after that turn of events it was hard to see Daly recovering. Except he did just that making birdie on the second playoff hole and cruising home as Rocca collapsed with a bogey on the 1st and a triple on the 3rd. From there alcoholism robbed Daly of his prime. He made 62 more starts in Majors but MC’d 38 times and had only one top twenty finish—a T15 at the 2005 British.

    D) Carnoustie 1999. If you aren’t familiar with Jean van de Velde I would think you’ve stumbled onto the wrong Substack page or you are a youngster. Whichever category you fall in or maybe neither and remember it quite well, watch this horror movie unfold where you will find a new definition of madness.

    
    E) Muirfield 2002. This year was notable not for who won (Ernie Els) but who did not which was Tiger Woods. Woods rolled into Gullane being the first player since Nicklaus in 1972 to win the first two legs of the Grand Slam. It must have felt like holding off the inevitable for the other golfers. I was no fan of Woods (in case you couldn’t tell) but I would’ve bet any sum he would finish this off. After the 2nd round Woods was well positioned, tied for 9th, but only 2 back of the lead. Saturday brought biblical plague wind and rain for those playing late. Justin Leonard for example went out early in benign conditions and fired a 68 which tied for the low round of the day. Just as he was finishing Hell was blowing in from the southwest. As the rain fell sideways in the gale, Woods shockingly fell apart with an 81 and his Grand Slam quest was over. He didn’t win the PGA later that year either finishing 2nd to Rich Beem but I’m going to tell you right now had he handled the weather and won here that Grand Slam would’ve been completed.

    F) Royal Birkdale 2008. At that time in July my then wife took my Son east to visit family every year. So I had an annual bachelor week to indulge in. Over in Southport, England 53 year old Greg Norman had scrambled to the 3rd round lead in extreme winds sitting at 2 over par. Not a single sub par round was signed for on Saturday. Meanwhile my buddy Roger had a literal keg party in Murfreesboro that I merrily participated in despite being 37 years of age. Sunday morning Roger (who had a constitution made of iron) was ready to watch Norman bring it home urgently rousing me awake to watch history. I said and I quote, “Brother, he’s going to shoot an 80” and rolled back over. I managed to stagger into the family room sometime past noon where I found 4 or 5 guys wearing long faces. Norman was +6 on the day after 13 holes and trailed Padraig Harrington by 3. That’s where he would finish totaling a 77, 6 behind the eventual winner Harrington who had defended his title from 2007.

    G) 2009 Turnberry. Just a year after Norman’s mid centenarian run, 59 year old Tom Watson nine months post hip replacement surgery topped him but fell 1 stroke shy of completing the damndest thing I would have ever seen in golf. Watson started out blazing with a 65 to be tied for 2nd, followed up with a 70 in tough conditions to share the lead after two rounds, and finally a 3rd round 71 to enter Sunday with sole possession of the lead. Two pieces of history were at stake—a win meant obviously the oldest Major winner of all time and as a five time winner of this Tournament he would tie Harry Vardon for the most Open wins ever. On Sunday five different players had at least a share of the lead at some point. Stewart Cink was the last of those holing a 15 footer for birdie on 18 for the clubhouse lead. Watson though birdied 17 and needed a par at 18 for the surreal win. He had only an 8 iron in but overcooked it slightly and it bounded just over the green. Up and down from the fringe would be reasonably automatic for most pros but Watson’s putter struggles were infamous. The putt from the fringe was poor leaving 10 feet for the win and the would be clincher was never close to being on line. The ensuing playoff with Cink was a foregone conclusion as Watson was cooked. So close.

    H) Muirfield 2013. The British Open had largely been a house of horrors for Phil Mickelson. He didn’t have a top ten until his 12th try when he finished 3rd in 2004 a stroke out of a playoff then tied for 2nd in 2011. But as a fan you never had any real sense it was a Tournament he could win. In 2013 there weren’t high expectations although Mickelson was still near his prime ranked 5th in the world at 43. On Saturday he played himself into the fringe of contention, 5 strokes back but trailed eight players one of which was his nemesis, Tiger Woods. However, those players in front of him began to falter one after another on Sunday. 54 hole leader Lee Westwood shot 75, Woods 74, Hunter Mahan 75 and so on. Meanwhile Mickelson went on a rampage up ahead starting on 13 and birdied 4 of the last 6 holes—holes that literally no one else on the course were making red numbers on—to close with a 66 and the clubhouse lead at -3. With more than an hour of play to go Mickelson had all but stolen the Tournament. Not one player came to the 18th hole within even 2 strokes of the lead and Mickelson had won his fifth, and most unexpected (for awhile) Major.

12. Back to some Royal Troon history. As mentioned the last Open here was in 2016 and prior to that 2004, then prior to that 1997—a span of 27 years. Players entered to compete this week who were in the field for those three also is a short list and in order of age from oldest to youngest are: Darren Clarke (55), Ernie Els (54), Phil Mickelson (54), Padraig Harrington (52), and Justin Leonard (52). Big name players who were here in 2016 but not with us this year include: Paul Lawrie, David Duval, Ben Curtis (all three were eligible as former champions but did not enter), Sergio Garcia, Danny Willett, Paul Casey, Jim Furyk, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Charl Schwartzel, Brandt Snedeker, Jimmy Walker, Bubba Watson, Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer, Webb Simpson, Jason Dufner, Steve Stricker, Vijay Singh, and Colin Montgomerie.

13. Picking a winner in a golf Tournament is closely akin to scratch off lottery tickets. For the British it becomes even further a game of blind darts with links golf upping the natural variance of golf considerably. Aside for weather luck, quirky bounces, and good old fashioned rub of the green the fact we don’t often see these guys playing links creates a difficult puzzle for the handicapper. Who is playing well in the lead up of a given year is almost inconsequential. Here though are five guys I have an inkling will be good bets this week in no particular order (Moneylines are from Draft Kings as of Monday at 1 PM): 1) Tony Finau (+4000)—I think Tony got his Major mojo back at Pinehurst. He finished T18 here in 2016 which was his first Open start plus two other top tens including a 3rd in 2019. 2) Cameron Young (+5500)—the 27 year old Young has yet to win anywhere other than on the AAA Korn Ferry. He has been in contention plenty however including a 2nd and T8 in his only two Open starts. He’s going to win eventually so it might as well be this week. 3) Jon Rahm (+2200)—Rahm has had a fiasco of a season with a milquetoast defense at Augusta, an MC at Valhalla, and an injury WD at Pinehurst. Whispers are growing louder that his defection to LIV has not served him well. That wouldn’t surprise me and frankly I hope it’s the case but he likely comes in here with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. 4) Cameron Smith (+4000)—Smith is another LIV defector but also a former champion here. Unlike Rahm, Smith has been mostly pretty good in the Majors since his move although he hasn’t been truly in contention to win any of them. Smith is a great player who is probably due. 5) Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)—Fleetwood, like Young, has never won on the PGA Tour (he does have 7 DP Tour wins). He seems like a quintessential Open winner and has fared well in prior attempts going 2nd, T33, T4, and T10.

14. There are a ton of big names that are among the favorites not listed above. Obviously that means I’m recommending a fade of the following with my reasoning as to why: 1) Scottie Scheffler (+450)—Scottie has one top ten in three Open starts (T8, T21, T23). It’s certainly not a bad record albeit abbreviated. After he washed out at Pinehurst I made the observation that the fickle nature of the course with respect to lies in the waste areas got in his head. I surmised that at least in this stage of his still young career perhaps he could not yet deal with a course that wasn’t of typical Tour antiseptic predictability. Several golf pundits stole this thought, no doubt after reading this very popular blog. Either way, if this theory is true the British Open will prove to be his toughest Major to win. 2) Rory McIlroy (+750)—After Rory’s implosion at Pinehurst I made the rather knee jerk prediction that his days as a top player competing for Majors were over. I can’t very well back off that a month later. 3) Bryson DeChambeau (+1400)—Do you know how many times a player has won the US Open and British Open in the same year? Seven. Bobby Jones did it twice (1926, 1930), Gene Sarazen (1932), Ben Hogan (1953), Lee Trevino (1971), Tom Watson (1982), and Tiger Woods (2000). I don’t like Bryson’s chances joining that group. 4) Xander Schauffele (+1200)—Do you know how many times a player has won the PGA and British Open in the same year? Six. Walter Hagen (1924), Nick Price (1994), Tiger Woods twice (2000, 2006), Padraig Harrington (2008), and Rory McIlroy (2014). I don’t like Xander’s chances joining that group. Although you have to say it’s been relatively common the last 30 years. *I should note that when I throw stats like the above on Twitter a certain subsection loses their minds. “Well, that doesn’t matter! You are just cherry picking numbers!” Which, of course it matters and of course I am not. I am simply posting what NORMALLY happens. You are certainly welcome to bet contrary to history. I will do the opposite (that is if I gambled at all). 5) Ludvig Aberg (+1400)—I am recommending against Aberg for the same reason I did the other three Majors. Players don’t win these kind of Tournaments on the first go round. But I have zero else to go on and of these fades it’s the one I’m least comfortable with by a lot. I may pick Aberg to win all four Majors next year. 6) Collin Morikawa (+1400)—The 2021 champ was in the final group at Augusta and Valhalla plus had a solid T14 at Pinehurst. He is justifiably one of the favorites I just figure he’s due for an off week. BTW, he hasn’t made a British cut since his win here which is only two years of course. 7) Brooks Koepka (+3500)—There is a lot to like about that number for Koepka as it’s curiously high. But since his PGA win last year at Oak Hill many expected Brooks to go into Terminator mode, including me, and it just hasn’t happened at all. He was a non factor at all three Majors this year and while he’s had success at the British before with four top tens he’s never been in position to win. Two other guys with odds in the top ten favorites are Viktor Hovland (+3000) and Tyrell Hatton (+2500). I don’t have a hard instinct either way for them but if pressed I would consider them in the group to back rather than fade. Some good value darkhorses in my opinion are Joaquin Niemann (+5000), Adam Scott (+5500), Corey Connors (+6500), and Matthieu Pavon (+20000).

15. The last ten Open winners with their approximate pre-Tournament moneyline (depending on the Book) were: Brian Harman (+12500), Cameron Smith (+2000), Collin Morikawa (+3000), Shane Lowery (+8000), Francesco Molinari (+2500), Jordan Spieth (+1200), Henrik Stenson (+2500), Zach Johnson (+8000), Rory McIlroy (+1200), and Phil Mickelson (+2000). This may not tell you much but it does allow for some interesting, albeit maybe not relevant, observations: The lowest number there is Spieth and McIlroy at +1200. My belief is that guys with really short numbers such as Scheffler and McIlroy are terrible plays and extremely unlikely to win. For what it’s worth, Schauffele is currently at +1200. Players with odds near what Brian Harman was last year are Dustin Johnson, Dean Burmester (two LIV guys), and Ryan Fox. You may say, well none of those guys will win. I would be inclined to agree with you but find me a prediction someone made of Harman winning last year. The median moneyline of the last ten winners was +2500. Tyrell Hatton can currently be bet at that number.

16. Speaking of the Scottish Open it has become a very important British Open prep since moving from Loch Lomond to various Scottish links in 2011. Of the Scottish winners since 2011, only one followed up with a victory in the British the next week—Phil Mickelson in 2013. However 8 of the last 12 British winners (remember no Open was held in 2020) at least played in the Scottish and most with good results. Those who did not play the week prior were Zach Johnson in 2015 (he finished 2nd at the John Deere instead which was then held the same week as the Scottish), Jordan Spieth in 2017 (who hadn’t played in a month since the Travelers), Francesco Molinari in 2018 (also played the Deere, finishing 3rd), and Shane Lowery in 2019 (who had played the Irish Open two weeks before on a links course). Notable of those who took last week off are Scottie Scheffler. Then you have the LIV clowns such as Koepka, Rahm, DeChambeau, and Cam Smith who played Valderrama in Spain last week which is a tree lined and basically American parkland course as far from a links as you can get.

17. A few more trends to consider drawn largely from this fantastic website I just discovered: 1) 23 of the last 36 Major winners were first timers and Harman was the 5th first timer in seven years at the British. 2) You have to go back to Louis Oosthuizen’s win in 2010 since a winner didn’t have either a win or 2nd at a prior Major. 3) Scour prior year leaderboards. Odds are high the eventual winner has a previous top ten or better demonstrating links prowess. 4) No Major, even The Masters, favors veteran players like the British. We recalled the runs by Norman and Watson but it’s rare a 40 something or older isn’t a factor here. Henrik Stenson and Zach Johnson won at 40 as well as Mickelson at 43. Plus a lot of deep runs were made such as Mickelson’s 2nd to Stenson at 46 and 49 year old Steve Stricker finished 4th that same year. 5) Your winner is close to certain of being in the top 50 of the OWGR, LIV be damned. Of the last 50 Major winners only Mickelson’s PGA in 2021 came from outside the top 50 when he was 115th. Even Harman was ranked 26th.

18. So who is the winner? I keep hearing Tony Finau in my head but boy has he disappointed me a ton the last three years or so. Cam Young and Tommy Fleetwood have never won so how can you back either? Rahm and Koepka haven’t had their fastball in over a year. McIlroy can’t recover from his Pinehurst catastrophe this soon if he ever does. Scheffler? I wouldn’t put anything past him but he’s going to find that putting is the difference maker at most British Open’s. His ballstriking won’t save him here. DeChambeau had a T8 in 2022 but has otherwise been bad here including 2 MC’s in seven starts. Schauffele hasn’t had a top ten here since 2018. Aberg will be in the hunt Sunday but a crucial, inexperienced mistake will cost him again. Hovland was out of this world good at Valhalla but has mostly stunk the rest of the year. Then you have this where someone editing Wikipedia fashions themselves clairvoyant. By the time I publish I would imagine this will be corrected. But as of Monday at 1250 PM a winner has been called with even the winning score, Hideki Matsuyama at -12. Be wild as hell if he wins. I think I’m down to two former champions in Morikawa and Smith. I can’t fully talk myself into either but gun to my head I say:

Cameron Smith

I won’t be blogging full rounds (at least I doubt it but I do have bouts of mean insomnia at times) considering they will be starting around 2 AM my time. But I’ll have recaps of some kind each day from Thursday through Sunday plus full Tournament grades on Monday as custom.