About 45 minutes out from things starting to happen. The picture above represents what I feel was the underplayed story of day 1—a reminder the 800 lb. gorilla BS (Before Scheffler) isn’t quite ready to be buried. That would be Big Bad Brooks Koepka. There was a day (only 2-3 years ago) when if he didn’t kill himself immediately you could zip up the bag. He tees off before 730.
Also representing Koran Ferry is Jon Rahm, teeing off 11 minutes later but off of 10. According to DataGolf, Rahm gained 3.5 strokes off the tee. That would rank in the top 15 all time and if my pre tournament hunch is correct that driving would be the decisive factor, he is the man to beat. Within the top 10, those two are the most accomplished players. Heck, the only accomplished players.
The forecast has worsened since last night. Rain is very likely after 4PM. The question really is how much falls and whether thunder drives the players off the course. I absolutely loath when the cut isn’t made Friday night. Saturday looks even more dour.
Over the last 50 years the eventual winner has been almost 3 strokes back on average, another positive for Rahm. Practically speaking I believe anybody 73 or better is still in it which includes Scheffler.
Speaking of Scottie he has never rallied to win when outside the top 30 after day 1. Never say never with him but he looks completely out of sorts for the 2nd year in a row at the Open.
J.J. Spaun became just the 8th player to record a bogey free Oakmont Open round. Three of those occurred in round 1 and two of those players went on to win (Hogan 1953, Johnson 2016)
Like yesterday, I’ll update as warranted throughout the day. Once a final edit is made I will indicate so in the subtitle.
732PM Spieth, Rahm, and Johnson all hit missiles dead straight via the shot tracker off 10 to start and all ended up in the rough. Jordan and DJ possibly in a bunker. This course man.
743AM The ring announcer guy just pronounced (Viktor) Hovland and Collin (Morikawa) with long o’s. Maybe that’s correct but I’ve never heard either name said that way ever. You have one job, dude.
747AM Spieth makes a par tester from 8 feet! A Festivus Miracle!
750AM No player ranked in the world top 10 broke par yesterday. Only two were Even—Russell Henley and Morikawa.
824AM Justin Thomas just 4 putted the par 5 12th from 20 feet. He’s now +9 and on his way home. It’s strange to say a guy with two majors is not a big game hunter but that’s my belief.
834AM Spieth has missed his first three fairways and paid the bogey price on two of them. Now he’s offline on the fourth as well and he’s got to find it quickly or his hopes will be gone before he blinks.
934AM The problem for guys like Scheffler who are well back is there just aren’t birdies out there. He’s played very well so far this morning but one off line drive and he’s back where he started. Bogey free like Spaun did yesterday is next to impossible. An even par day wouldn’t be a death sentence but realistically he needs to get back to Even. +1 at worst. I don’t see it happening.
1012AM For those saying red numbers aren’t out there (ahem), Hovland and Sam Burns are -4 and -3 through 8 holes.
1113AM A lot of talk about Scottie approaching Tiger air (including by me). We are about to see how close that is to reality. Three dreadful holes starting on 17 (his 8th) put him at +5 and with the tougher front to play very much in cut country. He rebounded with a bird on 2. Not hitting it or putting well enough to even consider winning but this is where Woods was a Doomsday Machine. You just could not kill that snake. If Scheffler can get back to Even for the day, you never know.
1128AM Amateur Lance Simpson was a member of the University of Tennessee golf team this past spring. Subscriber BillVol emailed me to ask if he had turned pro since he wasn’t wearing Vol gear. Which had not occurred to me. Bill went on to say:
“I remember when Oliver Goss played at the Masters as an amateur and current UT player. But he wore clothing for "Golf Australia." He had Smokey club covers. Really upset me when you see other college amateurs wearing school colors. Then he came back to UT and was pictured in his UT golf apparel. Too late. I think when we sign schollys, we should stipulate that you MUST wear UT garb if we are paying your way through school, even a little bit.”
A completely reasonable ask IMO.
1137AM Scheffler is far from alone in struggling of the headliners this morning. In fact, he’s doing OK by comparison. Koepka +3, Rahm +4, Morikawa +3, Spieth +4. Scottie is +2. Those are for the day scores. +7 is the current cut projection.
1143AM Victor Perez of the Euro Tour just aced the 6th and is now +1 for the tournament.
1238PM Speith has hit 4 of 13 fairways today. Scheffler 6 of 13. There is nuance to that but it’s pretty much the deal. Jordan especially.
127PM Morning wave beginning to finish, afternoon starting. Sam Burns finished with 65 and is one of the all time great strokes gained rounds. Try Johnny Miller’s 63 great neighborhood. At least 9 better than the field average and likely to climb.
Spieth finished with 75 and all things considered, not awful. He’s well inside the likely cut of +6. Scheffler was 2 over 1 over with 5 bogies and +4. Needs something like 67-67. Two 68’s might work too. One of those years where if you are within 10 tonight you have life. Burns’ -3 will be the absolute worst leading score in the clubhouse.
145PM Rory McIlroy doubled the 10th (his 1st) and is in a world of hurt. Also, this poor guy isn’t going to break 90.
158PM Sungjae Im had the lead briefly yesterday at -5 but it’s not gone well since. 10 over his last 25 holes.
256PM Inside the numbers—Scheffler, Koepka, Rahm, and Spieth all had miserable driving days with only Scottie able to salvage much on the greens. For the tournament, not even halfway complete mind you, none of the leaders have been lights out off the tee but are making up for it putting with the exception of Hovland and Adam Scott. Scott is just getting started so it’s a premature eval for him. Bottom line, you best be dialed in on one category or the other at least.
333PM Those thunderstorms are rolling in… People are scattering.
The defending champ is down to +6 and I’m loving my guess an MC was the probable result for DeChambeau.
352PM Thriston Lawrence of South Africa has birdied three in a row and is the sole leader at -6. If you are listening to the broadcast you heard them say how many cuts he’s missed. That is an inadequate representation as he’s made just 2 cuts in 11 starts. One of those was the Gulf of America Open which was one of the weakest fields of the year and the other was in Puerto Rico which was opposite field of Bay Hill. He’s played so few rounds the Tour doesn’t even have him ranked in any strokes gained category. He was fourth at Troon last summer which I have a vague recollection of. He won twice in Europe but never in America. So there’s that.
452PM Justin Ray says 36 of the last 40 Open winners came from the top 10 after two rounds. If that holds, and it’s a 90% correlation over nearly half a century, your winner will be Hovland, Scott, or Koepka. No way any of those other guys finish this. But I think any +4 or better is legitimately still in it.
602PM Way, way, way premature but if Mickelson could get to 2 or even 3… Despite his craven defection to LIV, I’d be rooting him on like a 14 year old. Nothing in my golfing life would top him winning this a day shy of 55. Chances? Literally probably not even 1%.
620PM DataGolf thinks the cut lands at +7. That would bring in Patrick Reed who finished 5 hours ago and I’d be surprised if he’s still in the city.
625PM What are the largest 36 hole deficits overcome to win the Open?
Lou Graham — 11 strokes in 1975. That’s an extreme outlier that we will ignore.
Tom Kite — 8 strokes in 1992. Driven entirely by high winds but the +5 is Spieth.
Larry Nelson — 7 strokes in 1983 right here at Oakmont. That would include all the +4’s and are Scheffler, Morikawa, Rahm, Schauffele (on 16), and Mickelson (on 14).
Webb Simpson and Corey Pavin — 6 strokes in 2012 & 1995. Notable +3’s are Day, Hatton, and Bradley.
+4 seems like the outer band of reality.
645PM Mickelson doubled 15. So much for that. At +6 still has cut cushion which would make him the oldest since Tom Watson did it at 60 in 2010.
804PM Stepped out for food and see the downpour finally arrived. If we get through the next two days with no delays will be very lucky.
814PM Horn blows for lightning leaving Lawrence unfinished to cap off a dreadful last 3 hours. We’ll close with scores of interest:
My Favorites
T12 Keegan Bradley 73 70 (+3)
T23 Scottie Scheffler 73 71 (+4)
T23 Jon Rahm 69 75 (+4)
T23 Collin Morikawa 70 74 (+4)
T36 Jordan Spieth 70 75 (+5)
T46 Xander Schauffele 72 74 (+6)
T46 Corey Conners 72 74 (+6)
T59 Harris English 73 74 (+7)
MC Ludvig Aberg 72 76 (+8)
MC Shane Lowry 79 (+9)
My Darkhorses
T4 Ben Griffin 69 71 (-1)
T23 Cameron Young 70 74 (+4)
T36 Sungjae Im 68 77 (+5)
T36 Maverick McNealey 76 69 (+5)
MC Bud Cauley 70 79 (+9)
My Fades
T8 Brooks Koepka 68 74 (+2)
T46 Rory McIlroy 74 72 (+6)
MC Bryson DeChambeau 73 77 (+10)
MC Joaquin Niemann 75 75 (+10)
MC Justin Thomas 76 76 (+12)
Koran Ferry
T8 Brooks Koepka 68 74 (+2)
T12 Carlos Ortiz 71 72 (+3)
T12 Tyrell Hatton 73 70 (+3)
T23 Jon Rahm 69 75 (+4)
T46 Marc Leishman 71 75 (+6)
T58 Patrick Reed 73 74 (+7)
MC Phil Mickelson 74 74 (+8)
MC Cameron Smith 75 73 (+8)
MC Jinichiro Kozuma 75 (+9, on 18)
MC Dustin Johnson 75 75 (+10)
MC Joaquin Niemann 75 75 (+10)
MC Bryson DeChambeau 73 77 (+10)
MC Jose Luis Ballester 76 76 (+12)
MC Richard Bland 76 82 (+18)
Others Who MC’d Not Listed Above
Patrick Cantlay 76 72 (+8)
Wyndham Clark 74 74 (+8)
Tommy Fleetwood 74 75 (+9)
Gary Woodland 73 77 (+10)
Sepp Straka 78 73 (+11)
Justin Rose 77 77 (+14)
As mentioned in the first round, I won’t be blogging the next two days. Might do pre-game quick columns in the morning. If not, I’ll be back with grades Monday evening.