Final CFB Playoff Resume Team Sheets, 12/8 with Predictions
Alright, Selection Sunday is here. I’m pushed for time so bear with any errors in grammar and such. The team sheet metrics are all updated except for SP+. I’ll edit that if it ever updates. This will be a pre reveal analysis only. I’ll do reactions on Tony’s blog Tuesday with the normal expanded repost here Wednesday morning.
First, how I think the bracket will look. I have hit this nearly 100% the last two weeks. Today, I’m not as confident 3-11. Oregon will be 1, Georgia will be 2, and Clemson will be 12 (unless they put SMU in they probably will be 11 and the Mustangs 12). Aside from that they could justify almost anything. Because of that, they actually have an easy job relative to what they want to do which is set up the most attractive matchups for ratings.
To start with, I do not think SMU will be included. I also do not think they should be included (unless you kick out Indiana and fine by me) which I’ll get into below. The Committee has a pretty stout set of bluebloods available—Alabama, NotreDame, OhioState, PennState, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee plus new money Oregon and Clemson. They don’t have Southern Cal, Michigan, LSU, or Oklahoma but on the whole they gotta be pretty happy. They already have Indiana and ArizonaState crashing the party, I don’t see them allowing another.
So with that available they can seed (and justify) an almost complete sweep of box office smashes in Round One. Stipulate Oregon, Georgia, Boise, and ASU 1-4. Then it becomes simple—either tOSU or PennSt at 5 playing 12 Clemson, 6 NotreDame hosting 11 Alabama, and either tOSU or PennSt at 8 getting 9 Tennessee at home. The only weak link is Texas at 7 drawing Indiana at 10 (imagine my surprise at Texas getting another freebie). They could solve that by putting in SMU over IU to add some spice but it’ll never happen. Again, I might be way off here but would any of that surprise you?
Now, if I were selecting and seeding a legitimate bracket without regard to money matchups but by what the numbers say things would look quite different. Let’s do this methodically as if solving a geometry proof in 9th grade:
A) Everyone agrees Oregon and Georgia are 1-2 so that’s stipulated.
B) 3, 4, and12 is between ASU, Boise, and Clemson. Clemson has a losing record vs the Top 40 (remember, I use SP+) and the fewest Top 40 wins total than the other two plus has an additional loss. Clemson also has the lowest SOR in this group. They do outpace ASU in the computer models (except Sagarin) but my view is that isn’t enough to overcome the other factors. Clemson also trailed ASU and Boise in last weeks Committee rankings with nothing happening to suggest a leap over them. Clemson is 12 (for now).
C) ASU and Boise is tough. ASU has three SP+ Top 25 wins and two wins vs teams that will be ranked in the CFP final 25. Boise has none. ASU does have an additional loss and both were to bad teams (although one came without their QB). ASU has a big edge with Sagarin, Boise has a big edge in SP+. The other poll differences are negligible. ASU has a slightly better SOS, Boise has a slightly better SOR. I can kind of see your point if preferring Boise but not much. Three wins vs zero has to count for something.
D) 5-9 is tricky. Here is the one thing I am certain about—PennSt has to be behind OhioSt. tOSU beat them in their building straight up and also was far more competitive with Oregon in Eugene. OhioSt also has the additional win over IU whereas PennSt has nothing other than a farcical CFP ranked win over Illinois. I get the problem with choking against Michigan but full body of work, no way is PennSt higher.
E) NotreDame and Texas are interchangeable. Texas has no quality wins. But neither does the Irish plus they have the ghastly loss to NorthernIllinois. The computers are essentially even. I’m going Texas having more Top 40 wins, a better SOS, and no bad losses with the fact no one has beat them except Georgia. We’ll call it 5 Texas, 6 OhioSt, 7 NotreDame but I’m not going to be dogmatic about it as any order of those three is reasonable.
F) Tennessee and PennSt. The Vols hold a win that PennSt doesn’t have even close to (the Illinois game doesn’t count. We do reality here not theatre). Tennessee also has a better record vs both the Top 25 and Top 40. UT has not a bad loss on the road to Arkansas but by any reasonable take it’s worse than those suffered by the Nittany Lions. All other metrics are virtually even. My view is the Vols should get the nod because of the win over Bama. But honestly it’s a coin flip. There is no way they are putting the B1G runner up behind the SEC third place team without multiple compelling data points and they just aren’t there. The Vols got really unlucky here but I don’t think there is much room to complain.
G. SMU and Alabama. There is going to be a lot of white knighting for SMU over the next few hours and even days. I understand the sentiment but its misguided. Here are the facts—The Tide has four Top 25 wins and five Top 40 wins while SMU has one and three. Bama has wins over three of the CFP Top 25 including 2nd seeded Georgia. SMU has none. Alabama has a decisive lead in every metric. The Tide did this playing a vastly more difficult schedule. I get that Alabama being trucked in Norman seems to be bouncing off of them. But SMU does not have the resume to take advantage. As a matter of fact do you know who has as good of a case as SMU for the final spot? BYU. Don’t believe me, scroll down and look for yourself. The Cougars actually beat SMU in Dallas.
H) All that said I would still put SMU in the 12 hole. The team with absolutely no business of even being in the discussion is the Indiana Hoosiers. They played one good team three weeks ago, got trounced, and somehow were declared in no matter what after beating the worst Purdue team of all time by 60. You won’t hear anybody crying the blues about that so they can join the other lemmings screaming Bama privilege. Final ranks are below with team sheets following.
How I Think the Bracket Will Look
1 Oregon
2 Georgia
3 BoiseSt
4 ArizonaSt
5 OhioSt
6 NotreDame
7 Texas
8 PennSt
9 Tennessee
10 Indiana
11 Alabama
12 Clemson
How I Think the Bracket Should Look
1 Oregon
2 Georgia
3 ArizonaSt
4 BoiseSt
5 Texas
6 OhioSt
7 NotreDame
8 Tennessee
9 PennSt
10 Alabama
11 Clemson
12 SMU
Team Sheet Resumes
Oregon 13-0 (8-5 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 3-0
SP+ Top 40 Record: 4-0
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 4—#1 OhioSt, PennSt, #21 BoiseSt, @33 Michigan
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 3—BoiseSt, OhioSt, PennSt
AP 1, Coaches 1
SP+: 2
Massey Composite: 1
Sagarin: 2
FPI: 6
SOS: 34
SOR: 1
Georgia 11-2 (4-9 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 5-2
SP+ Top 40 Record: 6-2
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 6—@ #4 Texas, #4 Texas, #8 Tennessee, #15 Clemson (N), #22 Florida #29 Auburn
Wins Over Ranked CFP Teams: 4—Texas, Texas, Tennessee, Clemson
Losses: @ #3 OleMiss, @ #5 Alabama
AP 2, Coaches 2
SP+: 7
Massey Composite: 5
Sagarin: 5
FPI: 5
SOS: 1
SOR: 2
BoiseSt 12-1 (9-4 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 0-1
SP+ Top 40 Record: 2-1
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 2—@ #30 UNLV, #30 UNLV
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 0
Losses: @ #2 Oregon
AP 8, Coaches 8
SP+: 21
Massey Composite: 15
Sagarin: 30
FPI: 27
SOS: 86
SOR: 13
ArizonaSt 11-2 (11-2 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 3-0
SP+ Top 40 Record: 3-0
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 3—@ #19 KansasSt, #20 BYU, #16 IowaSt
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 2—BYU, IowaSt
Losses: @ #55 TexasTech, @ #69 Cincinnati
AP 10, Coaches 10
SP+: 39
Massey Composite: 14
Sagarin: 12
FPI: 28
SOS: 72
SOR: 16
Clemson 10-3 (6-7 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 1-3
SP+ Top 40 Record: 1-3
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 1—# 12 SMU
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 1—SMU
Losses: #7 Georgia, #13 SouthCarolina, #18 Louisville
AP 13, Coaches 13
SP+: 15
Massey Composite: 16
Sagarin: 18
FPI: 15
SOS: 52
SOR: 26
Texas 11-2 (7-6 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 2-2
SP+ Top 40 Record: 5-2
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 5—@ #14TexasA&M, #22 Florida, @ #28 Arkansas, #31 Oklahoma, @#33 Michigan
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 0
Losses: #7 Georgia, #7 Georgia
AP 4, Coaches 4
SP+: 4
Massey Composite: 3
Sagarin: 4
FPI: 1
SOS: 21
SOR: 3
NotreDame 11-1 (9-3 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 3-0
SP+ Top 40 Record: 4-0
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 4—@ #14 TexasA&M, #18 Louisville, @ #25 USC, #38 Army
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 0
Losses: #93 NIU
AP 3, Coaches 3
SP+: 9
Massey Composite: 2
Sagarin: 1
FPI: 2
SOS: 58
SOR: 4
OhioSt 10-2 (6-6 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 3-1
SP+ Top 40 Record: 3-2
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 3—@ #6 PennSt, #11 Indiana, #16 Iowa
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 2—PennSt, Indiana
Losses: @ #2 Oregon, #33 Michigan
AP 6, Coaches 7
SP+: 1
Massey Composite: 4
Sagarin: 3
FPI: 3
SOS: 27
SOR: 6
Tennessee 10-2 (7-5 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 2-1
SP+ Top 40 Record: 3-2
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 3—#5 Alabama, #22 Florida, @ #31 Oklahoma
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 1—Alabama
Losses: @ #7 Georgia, @ #28 Arkansas
AP 7, Coaches 6
SP+: 8
Massey Composite: 9
Sagarin: 9
FPI: 7
SOS: 30
SOR: 7
PennSt 11-2 (6-7 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 1-2
SP+ Top 40 Record: 2-2
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 2—@ #25 USC, @ #34 Minnesota
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 1—Illinois
Losses: #1 OhioSt, Oregon
AP 5, Coaches 5
SP+: 6
Massey Composite: 6
Sagarin: 8
FPI: 9
SOS: 29
SOR: 5
Indiana 11-1 (9-3 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 0-1
SP+ Top 40 Record: 1-1
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 1—#33 Michigan
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 0
Losses: @ #1 OhioSt
AP 9, Coaches 9
SP+: 11
Massey Composite: 7
Sagarin: 11
FPI: 10
SOS: 68
SOR: 8
SMU 11-2 (8-5 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 1-2
SP+ Top 40 record: 3-2
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 3—@ #18 Louisville, #36 TCU, @ #40 Duke
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 0
Losses: Clemson, #20 BYU
AP 12, Coaches 12
SP+: 12
Massey Composite: 10
Sagarin: 10
FPI: 13
SOS: 60
SOR: 15
Alabama 9-3 (7-5 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 4-1
SP+ Top 40 Record: 5-2
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 5—#7 Georgia, #13 SouthCarolina, @ #17 LSU, #23 Missouri, #29 Auburn
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 3—Georgia, SouthCarolina, Missouri
Losses: @ #10 Tennessee, @ #31 Oklahoma @ #61 Vanderbilt
AP 11, Coaches 11
SP+: 5
Massey Composite: 8
Sagarin: 6
FPI: 4
SOS: 16
SOR: 9
OleMiss 9-3 (7-5 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 2-2
SP+ Top 40 Record: 4-2
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 4—#7 Georgia, @ #13 SouthCarolina, @ #28 Arkansas, #31 Oklahoma
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 2—Georgia, SouthCarolina
Losses: @ #17 LSU, @ #22 Florida, #48 Kentucky
AP 16, Coaches 15
SP+: 3
Massey Composite: 11
Sagarin: 7
FPI: 8
SOS: 33
SOR 18
SouthCarolina 9-3 (9-3 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 3-3
SP+ Top 40 Record: 4-3
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 4—# 14 Texas A&M, @ # 15 Clemson, #23 Missouri, @ #31 Oklahoma
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 2—Clemson, Missouri
Losses: #3 OleMiss, @ #5 Alabama, #17 LSU
AP 14, Coaches 14
SP+: 13
Massey Composite: 12
Sagarin: 13
FPI: 14
SOS: 15
SOR: 11
Miami 10-2 (8-4 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 2-0
SP+ Top 40 Record: 4-0
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 4—@ #18 Louisville, @ #22 Florida, #26 VATech, #40 Duke
Wins Over CFP Ranked Teams: 0
Losses: @ #50 Syracuse, @ #59 GATech
AP 15, Coaches 16
SP+: 10
Massey Composite: 13
Sagarin: 14
FPI: 11
SOS: 55
SOR: 14
BYU 10-2 (7-5 ATS)
SP+ Top 25 Record: 2-0
SP+ Top 40 Record: 3-1
SP+ Top 40 Wins: 3—@ #12 SMU, #19 KansasSt, @ #32 Baylor
Wins Over Ranked CFP Teams: 1—BYU
Losses: @ #39 ArizonaSt, #51 Kansas
AP 17, Coaches 17
SP+: 20
Massey Composite: 17
Sagarin: 29
FPI: 32
SOS: 44
SOR: 12