The Definitive 2025 Masters Preview
Maybe It's Not "Definitive" But You Can't Say It Isn't Comprehensive
I started this project exactly a year ago with a Masters preview. It’s amusing looking back on it as I had no idea what I was doing in terms of formatting. Anyway, I continued with each Major through the Summer in the same basic style—18 bullet points leaning heavily on the history of each Tournament and that years hosting course.
Since The Masters is the only Major held at a permanent site, that really won’t work again. But feel free to check out last years piece as a refresher. What I decided on this year is to use historical norms in trying to identify the winner. If you missed it, I posted my research HERE on Sunday evening that you can use as reference. We’ll go through the entire field, mostly using process of elimination before making a final pick. You may know that I am legendarily and spectacularly bad at handicapping so this allows an opportunity for the reader to make some money by fading my picks.
I should add that everybody in the world has done some variation of this column. Dan Rapaport (who needs an editor worse than me) chimes in at his new site here having left Barstool. Mark Schlabach, who would be well served sticking to football, represents the Worldwide Leader here presumably because they no longer employ a real golf writer (and it’s laughably behind the ESPN+ paywall). And you have Golf Digest’s version here. I wouldn’t doubt there are a dozen others.
In my non biased opinion what you’ll read below is at least as good as those and definitely more informative but that’s for you to say.
Living Major Winners Under 50 Who Did Not Earn an Invitation +1
Graeme McDowell—45
Louis Oosthuizen—42
Gary Woodland—40
Martin Kaymer—40
Webb Simpson—39
Rickie Fowler—36 (the +1)
EDIT: Francesco Molinari—42 (credit to my Son who caught the omission and made me see I missed several), Ben Curtis—47, Geoff Ogilvy—47, Jason Dufner—48, Jimmy Walker—46
Living Champions Who Will Not Participate and Their Age
Gary Player—89, Tommy Aaron—88, Charles Coody—87, Jack Nicklaus—85, Raymond Floyd—82, Tom Watson—75, Fuzzy Zoeller—73, Ben Crenshaw—73, Craig Stadler—71, Mark O’Meara—68, Nick Faldo—67, Sandy Lyle—67, Ian Woosnam—67, Larry Mize—66, Vijay Singh—62, Tiger Woods—49, Trevor Immelman—45
*Fun Fact—Lyle, Faldo, and Woosnam won four straight Masters between them from 1988-1991. They represent 3/4’s of the United Kingdom, with Lyle being the first Brit to ever win, and were born within 7 months of each other.
95 Players Are Scheduled to Compete
Players We Can Safely Eliminate
Amateurs—5
No amateur has ever won, with none anywhere near contention since Charles Coe tied for second in 1961 (Frank Stranahan did the same in 1947). Coe, who was the greatest American amateur ever this side of Bobby Jones, tied for 9th the following year. Ken Venturi also had a stand alone 2nd in 1956. The last top 20 was Ryan Moore in 2005 who tied for 13th. Bryson DeChambeau tied for 21st in 2016. This year’s amateur crop and their ages are:
Evan Beck, 34
Jose Luis Ballester, 21
Justin Hastings, 21
Noah Kent, 19
Hiroshi Tai, 23
Former Champions Scheduled to Play but Are Ceremonial with Ages—7
Bernhard Langer, 67 (Masters History: 40 starts, 2 wins, 3 Top 5’s, 9 Top 10’s, 13 MC’s)
Fred Couples, 65 (Masters History: 39 starts, 1 win, 1 runner up, 5 Top 5’s, 11 Top 10’s, 8 MC’s)
Jose Maria Olazabal, 59 (Masters History: 35 starts, 2 wins, 1 runner up, 5 Top 5’s, 8 Top 10’s, 15 MC’s)
Angel Cabrera, 55 (Masters History: 20 starts, 1 win, 1 runner up, 2 Top 5’s, 6 Top 10’s, 7MC’s)
Mike Weir, 54 (Masters History: 25 starts, 1 win, 2 Top 5’s, 2 Top 10’s, 13 MC’s)
Phil Mickelson, 54 (Masters History: 31 starts, 3 wins, 2 runner ups, 12 Top 5’s, 16 Top 10’s, 3 MC’s)
Zach Johnson, 49 (Masters History: 20 starts, 1 win, 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10’s, 9 MC’s)
Masters Rookies—16
Only three have won it, two of the three were the first two Masters (then called the Augusta National Invitation Tournament, The Masters moniker wasn’t used until 1939) and the other was Fuzzy Zoeller 46 years ago in 1979. This group, that by my calculation has a 3% chance of winning (charitably), and their ages includes:
Rafael Campos, 36 (Campos has never played any Major)
Brian Campbell, 32
Laurie Canter, 35
Thomas Detry, 32 (Also never been a winner from Belgium)
Nico Echavarria, 30 (Also never been a winner from Columbia)
Max Greyserman, 29 (Also never been a winner from New Jersey)
Joe Highsmith, 24
Rasmus Hojgaard, 24 (Also never been a winner from Denmark OR a 24 year old)
Thriston Lawrence, 28
Matt McCarty, 27 (Also never been a winner from Arizona)
Maverick McNealy, 29 (Also never been a winner from Nevada)
Taylor Pendrith, 33
Aaron Rai, 30
Davis Riley, 28 (Also never been a winner from Mississippi)
Davis Thompson, 25 (Also never been a winner from Alabama)
Kevin Yu, 26 (Also never been a winner from Taiwan)
That Leaves Us with an Effective Masters Field of 67
Reverse Order (Sort of) Likelihood to Win
67 Bubba Watson is making his 17th start which only one player has won from, Gary Player in 1974. He is also seeking his third Green Jacket which only eight players have managed (Nicklaus, Woods, Arnold Palmer, Jimmy Demaret, Sam Snead, Player, Faldo, Mickelson). Finally, Bubba is 46 years old. You aren’t reading this preview if you don’t know the only player to pull this trick at that age. Watson is in that class of the seven above not even counting Nicklaus? Uh, no. (Masters History: 16 starts, 2 wins, 3 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 MC’s)
66 Sergio Garcia is 45 and no player that age has won The Masters. He is also making his 26th start which no player has won from. (Masters History: 25 starts, 1 win, 2 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, 10 MC’s)
65 Justin Rose is 44 and no player that age has won The Masters. He is also making his 20th start which no player has won from. (Masters History: 19 starts, 2 runner ups, 3 Top 5’s, 6 Top 10’s, 3 MC’s)
64 Charl Schwartzel is making his 16th start which no winner, former champion or otherwise, has won from. He’s also 40 which has been accomplished only once as you’ll see below. (Masters History: 15 starts, 1 win, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 5 MC’s)
63 Denny McCarthy (age 32) and 62 Adam Schenk (age 33) Neither man has a win other than at the AAA level on Korn Ferry. The only player who ever won The Masters without at least one prior PGA or European Tour win was Claude Harmon in 1948. And Harmon was the club pro at Winged Foot for years who didn’t play the Tour regularly. For mostly that reason, we have to discount the chances of McCarthy and Schenk. McCarthy is also from Maryland, a state with zero Major Champions (or SEC Championships). Cameron Young fits in this category as well although he presents a different case which we’ll get to shortly. (Masters History: Both have 1 prior start, last year—McCarthy T45, Schenk T12)
61 Danny Willett (age 37) Both Opens, the U.S. and British versions, have produced more fluky winners than The Masters over history. Augusta, mostly due to the limited field size but also because the course isn’t tricked up nonsense like many USGA set ups of old or at the mercy of preposterous weather across the pond, has been immune from this for the most part. Without a doubt though there have been some, ahem, not so legendary winners—Herman Keiser, Tommy Aaron, Charles Coody, Larry Mize, Mike Weir, and Trevor Immelman most notably. It is not premature to lump Willett in that group. He’s missed 5 of 8 Masters cuts since winning in 2016 (which was generously handed to him by Jordan Spieth) and currently ranks 384th in the world. To be fair, Willett has had serious issues with his left shoulder that required surgery and is getting into events on a major medical exemption. He did T9 at the Farmers but this in an easy call. If he makes the cut it’s a victory. (Masters History: 10 starts, 1 win, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 5 MC’s)
60 Lucas Glover is 45 years of age which no winner has accomplished. (Masters History: 10 starts, 4 MC’s)
59 Adam Scott is 44 years of age which no winner has accomplished. This one makes me a little uneasy. There is about always a player or two around this age or older that makes a run and Scott has seldom played outright poorly here. I definitely won’t be surprised if he is at least in fringe contention on Sunday. (Masters History: 23 starts, 1 win, 1 runner up, 2 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 2 MC’s)
58 Dustin Johnson The only 40 year old to win here was Ben Hogan in his “Triple Crown” season of 1953. I find the idea of Johnson matching this extremely unlikely. DJ hasn’t been a factor at any Major since defecting to the Clown League other than a T10 at the 2023 US Open with three MC’s in eight starts. Since winning his Green Jacket in the asterisk COVID year of 2020, Johnson has went MC, T12, T48, MC at Augusta. (Masters History: 14 starts, 1 win, 1 runner up, 3 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 3 MC’s)
The South Korean Squadron of Byeong Hun An, Sungjae Im, and Tom Kim are just three of six Asian Pacific players not including the previously mentioned amateur from Singapore (Tai), the rookie from Taiwan (Yu), and a former Champion from Japan (Hideki Matsuyama) which is surely the most ever (I’m not looking that one up). Vijay Singh broke the Southeast Asian glass ceiling by winning here in 2000 then Matsuyama did the same for East Asia four years ago. Once something has happened a few times I’m much more receptive to the idea of another. This trio’s chances in order:
57 Byeong Hun An is making is 6th Masters start, same as Im, although he is six years older at 33. This will be his 32nd Major and he’s not once had a Top 10 and only six Top 25’s with 14 MC’s. He’s won twice in Europe but never in America. Hard pass. (Masters History: 5 starts, 3 MC’s)
56 Sungjae Im (age 27) hasn’t won on Tour since a fall event in 2001 and has been an MC machine in Majors since, missing the weekend in 7 of his last 14 starts. He was runner up with Cameron Smith to Dustin Johnson in 2020 here as a rookie and also tied for 8th in 2022 so he could win. I could see taking a flyer if getting long odds (which you can, +11000 on DraftKings) but we will look elsewhere. (Masters History: 5 starts, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 2 MC’s)
55 Tom Kim, at only 22, is incredibly playing his third Masters and thirteenth Major overall. He’s yet to make noise at Augusta although he made both cuts. However, he Top Ten’d at both Opens in 2023 including sharing runner up honors (albeit distantly to Brian Harman) with Jason Day at Royal Liverpool. Kim is very talented and of the young guns under 25 he’s the most slept on, probably because he isn’t American. Of these three, he is the most plausible to win. (Masters History: 2 starts, 0 MC’s)
Players the Casual Golf Fan Who Only Watches the Majors Never Heard Of and Won’t Be Any The Wiser on Sunday Evening are Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Chris Kirk, and J.T. Poston
54 Christiaan Bezuidenhout (age 30) is one of around fifteen players here that even weekly PGA Tour viewers couldn’t pick out of a police lineup. He’s never won in America (granted he’s not alone there) but has three Euro wins, the last of which was four years ago. Bezuidenhout is excellent around and on the greens but short and mediocre through the rest of his bag. If they let him play the members tees he’d have a chance. His winter was middling although he did tie for 4th at the WM. (Masters History: 3 starts, T38, T40, T44)
53 Chris Kirk (age 39) was born in Knoxville but raised in an Atlanta suburb and is a successful recovering alcoholic for which I have great respect for. He won the season opening Sentry in 2024 and despite only two more Top 10’s the rest of the year was able to parlay that into the FedEx Playoffs then the Tour Championship which got him right back here this week. Kirk has played The Masters on five prior occasions, including the last two years, and performed pretty decently with a T16 last year even though I doubt it’s a course he would say suits his game. 2025 has not been fruitful, thus making the weekend and another Top 25 seems best case. (Masters History: 5 starts, 1 MC)
52 J.T. Poston is 31 and at the age many pro golfers begin to peak, particularly at The Masters. This will be the tenth straight Major he’s qualified for, by far the best of his career which started in 2017. Poston kind of gives me some Charles Howell III vibes in relation to results with an occasional win, never in contention at big events, but just keeps cashing checks that add up big time. How does over $20 million in career earnings sound to you? If me makes a TV appearance this weekend on the main CBS feed I’ll be impressed. (Masters History: 3 starts, 1 MC)
Late Additions to the Field Based on the Final Surveyed OWGR Top 50 Who Are Just Thrilled to be Here and Hope Their Invitations Aren’t Lost in the Mail if Delivered by This Guy are Stephan Jaeger, Michael Kim, J.J. Spaun, and Daniel Berger
51 Stephan Jaeger is a player I never heard of until last week. That doesn’t necessarily mean he can’t play but I wouldn’t say it’s a promising indicator. The 35 year old native of Germany makes his home in Chattanooga after prepping at Baylor then playing his college golf at UT-C. He once shot a 58 on the then Web.com Tour which is worth mentioning if not on a pitch and putt (or a Putt-Putt). Jaeger returned 74-80 here last year to miss the cut by a mile. (Masters History: 1 start, 1 MC)
50 Michael Kim (age 31) was outside the OWGR 150 to start the 2025 season. Since then he’s been scorching hot including five straight finishes of 13th or better including runner up in Phoenix and 4th at Bay Hill before a MC at the Players. In the final week of when cracking the OWGR top 50 would get you in here, Kim’s T32 in Houston was enough to hold off Ben Griffin by fractions, literally less than a hundredth of a world ranking point, to secure his invite. Kim last saw the property in 2019 where he beat four players after signing for 76-78. Obviously in good form currently and obviously he better be. (Masters History: 1 start, 1 MC)
49 J.J. Spaun (age 34) recently lost The Players Championship in a playoff to Rory McIlroy just a month ago which few saw because A) It was played the week college basketball reaches a crescendo and B) The playoff took place on Monday morning due to a four hour weather delay on Sunday (ratings were apparently excellent so what do I know).
Anyway Spaun has an interesting story, overcoming a misdiagnosis of Type 2 diabetes that was actually late onset Type 1 diabetes (yes that’s juvenile diabetes that develops in adulthood) which submarined his career for four years. The Players runner up launched Spaun from 57th to 25th in the OWGR which earned an invitation. (Masters History: 1 start, T23)
48 Daniel Berger (age 32) would not have been a player you would have guessed as needing a final category Hail Mary to obtain an invitation four years ago. At that point he was a regular Majors participant (although not so much at Augusta), solidly a top 20 player in the world, and a stalwart on a (rare) winning American Ryder Cup team. Back pain from a bulging disk started that year of 2021 unfortunately. He was able to avoid surgery but rest and rehab cost him 18 months off Tour and with it any protected status in the new elevated signature event era.
Berger resumed full time play last year with mixed results seeming to miss about every other cut. 2025 has been much more fertile capped by a runner up in Phoenix and a return to Tour level swing speeds enabling him to play his preferred power game. Berger has four top 10’s in Majors including a T10 here but that was nearly a decade ago. If he had a little more runway to further knock off the rust I would be more optimistic of his result. (Masters History: 5 starts, 1 Top 10, 1 MC)
Players From Countries With No Major Championships include Jhonattan Vegas, Nicolai Hojgaard and Joaquin Niemann. Several other players could be placed here too but fit better in other boxes and a few I am choosing to omit because I like their games better than these guys.
47 Jhonattan Vegas is the only Venezuelan to ever earn a Tour card and won the Bob Hope way back in 2011 in only his 5th start. He bounced on and off the major circuit from there until winning back to back Canadian Opens in 2016-2017. From there, not much good happened culminating with an elbow injury that nearly shelved him permanently. He MC’d 2 of his 3 Masters and in fact has missed 9 cuts out of 15 total Majors played. Vegas is pretty long, hits the ball a mile high AND is accurate with his irons. He oughta be able to play well here but he never has and why would that trend be broken in start number 4 at age 40? If anything I have him ranked generously. (Masters History: 3 starts, 2MC’s)
46 Nicolai Hojgaard (age 24) should not be confused with his twin brother Rasmus in the rookie grouping above. Nicolai played last year to avoid that death sentence and you probably forgot played with Scheffler on Saturday actually taking the solo lead for about five minutes after a birdie on 10. He then bogied five straight holes but still finished a commendable T16. This kid has a lot of game, as does his brother, and both are being lost in their Nordic neighbor Ludvig Aberg’s hype. One day maybe but not this year. (Masters History: 1 start, T16)
45 Joaquin Niemann (age 26) was granted a special invitation by AGNC outside the boundaries of the other fourteen ways a professional can be invited for the second consecutive year. I have no idea why. Because he won a few 54 hole exhibitions? If that’s all it takes, why not invite the entire Clown Tour roster? Now, I understand many of the LIV bots will call foul on this characterization of their “tour” and Niemann. Right. In regard to Niemann, what is it you object to? His zero Top 10’s in 22 Major starts? His one Top 20? His two PGA Tour wins in five years, one of which was a fall event at the Greenbrier? The track record on Niemann is no longer thin. In fact, his resume is quite extensive and I’m curious when the excuse making is going to cease. (Masters History: 5 starts, 1 MC)
Players from States That Have Never Produced a Major Champion are Tom Hoge of North Dakota and Tony Finau of Utah. There are several others that fit in this category but have already been mentioned as Rookies and thus have a double whammy. This duo is unique in that they have to break one specific trend. The likelihood in order IMO is:
44 Tom Hoge (age 35) was born in North Carolina but raised in Fargo, North Dakota where he still lives. Boy, talk about a homebody. Hoge’s only win was at Pebble a few years ago which I have no memory of. The seventh post I wrote here looked at the best athletes historically from every state and North Dakota was one of six states to have no representation in any of our sports Halls of Fame, nor a Heisman winner, nor a tennis Grand Slam winner, nor a golf Major winner. I’m sure Hoge is a good dude and fine pro but no way is he winning The Masters. (Masters History: 2 starts, 1 MC)
43 Tony Finau has been a popular pick as a Major breakthrough candidate for over five years. But since 2022 it’s been one disappointment after another with only two top 20’s in his last twelve Major starts, albeit including a T3 at Pinehurst last June. At age 35 the urgency should be real. Remember when Finau dislocated his ankle celebrating an ace during the Par 3 contest here in 2018? He just popped that thing back in place and kept going even making the cut. That right there is a grown ass man, I’m telling you. Tony played pretty well in February with a T13 at Pebble and a T5 at the Genesis. Of any player I’m not including in the primary contenders below, he’d be the most likely to prove me wrong. (Masters History: 7 starts, 1 Top 5, 3 Top 10’s, 0 MC’s)
Ignominy Division
42 Nick Taylor (age 36) has his own category by carrying the regrettable distinction of being the only player to miss the cut in all four 2024 Majors. It gets worse. Last year included he has missed seven consecutive Major cuts and nine of his last ten dating back to 2020. It’s a bit strange as he has five Tour wins, more than 48 fellow competitors, including one in the last three seasons and has a reputation of being clutch when near the lead. Taylor is also one of the shorter hitters on Tour which can be overcome at Augusta but it definitely doesn’t help matters. If you need further convincing, Taylor’s win this past winter was at the Sony. No player has ever won there and The Masters in the same year dating back to 1971. (Masters History: 2 starts, T29 and MC)
Hopefully Not the Chip Beck Division
41 Max Homa (age 34) played the best golf in the Field here last year tee to green for 65 holes before a double bogey at 12 ended his chances. A fan favorite but long maligned for never contending in Majors (which he hadn’t) Homa played brave, aggressive golf and impressed the heck out of me by relentlessly charging birdie putts. The man was there to win. I presumed he had turned the proverbial Major corner and would be a leaderboard regular the next five years or so. Alas, since that time his game regressed (that’s kind, it has cratered) with the only thing functional right now being his wedge play and his last Top 25 coming at Jack’s Memorial. This winter descended into the pits of Hell missing his last five cuts with the nadir being a 1st round 81 at Bay Hill featuring 9 bogies and a double. This is a player who checks a lot of boxes as to who normally contends at Augusta and I’m astonished to be ranking him this low. The truth is, given his form it’s too high and might oughta be slotted just after Bubba. (Masters History: 5 starts, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 2 MC’s)
Players from States That Have Never Had a Masters Winner but Have Produced Other Major Champions which includes Keegan Bradley of Vermont, Austin Eckroat of Oklahoma, plus Patton Kizzire and Nick Dunlap of Alabama. Patrick Reed went to high school in Baton Rouge but was born in San Antonio and currently lives in The Woodlands suburb of Houston. So depending on how you categorize Reed you could put Sam Burns of Shreveport here. I am arbitrarily counting Reed as a Louisianan.
40 Patton Kizzire being 38 years old surprised me. He’s one of those guys you’ve seen almost accidentally on scoreboards here and there but never thought much of him. Kind of like Keith Clearwater in the 90’s. This is his first Masters since 2019 and first Major since 2022. The 2007 individual SEC Champion for Auburn, Kizzire won a fall event to get in. He also has missed 7 of 9 cuts in 2025 plus a W/D. The tough run since Saturday on the Plains will continue. (Masters History: 2 starts, 1 MC)
39 Nick Dunlap is the only player in Tour history to win as an amateur and professional in the same year which he achieved last year. After about as decorated an amateur career you can have, Dunlap turned pro after winning the American Express and essentially fell flat on his face but rallied to win the Barracuda opposite of the British. He has played pretty well this spring with a top 10 at the Genesis and 19th at the Sony but he’s missed every cut in the five Majors he’s competed in. Keep in mind this kid is only 21. My sense is he will be a solid pro for years but I can’t see being confident of his chances here this week or anywhere until he demonstrates a gear required to handle Championship courses and pressure. (Masters History: 1 start, 1 MC)
38 Austin Eckroat played at Oklahoma State and isn’t it strange that such a storied program is located in a state with no Masters winner? Eckroat is a youngun’ at 26 and I could see him being within shouting distance for awhile, even on Sunday. He is however an accurate but relatively short hitter and just an OK putter. That does not add up to a player getting the Sooner state off the schneid. (Masters History: 1 start, MC)
37 Keegan Bradley (age 38) is one of only six players to win in their Major debut, out of Vermont no less, and one of the more interesting stories on Tour this year. As you surely know he was named the Ryder Cup Captain out of nowhere and soon after began a career renaissance. If he were to win anywhere this season, especially here, there would be almost no doubt he would be thrust into the role of playing Captain, which would be disastrous on every level. I’ve always felt that once a guy wins one Major you can’t discount them but Bradley has never played well here with not even a Top 20 in eight prior starts. He CAN win but with that putting stroke, he won’t. Look elsewhere for a darkhorse. (Masters History: 8 starts, 1 MC)
Players Nearing or in the Autumn of Their Careers That Don’t Seem to Have a Major in Them Include Billy Horschel and Harris English.
36 Billy Horschel is a guy I have great admiration for, which you know if you followed my British coverage last Summer. He has never played Augusta well but then again you could say that about every Major aside for last year. 2025 has been mostly poor with three MC’s although he was T9 at Pebble and had a much needed and surely encouraging T4 at the Valspar 3 weeks ago. Statistically, nothing in his game had been clicking until Innisbrook but much changed that week, especially his putter which had been dowsed after an en fuego 2024. Perhaps that momentum carries over but unfortunately I think the 38 year old Horschel’s best opportunity drowned in the Xander Schauffele tsunami at Royal Troon. (Masters History: 9 starts, 2 MC’s)
35 Harris English (age 35) received an invite by winning The Farmers in January at Torrey Pines, his first Tour win in nearly four years. Surprisingly, only three players have won that tournament and the Masters in the same year with the last being Tiger Woods in 2005. English is an excellent putter and plenty long enough so it’s a bit odd he has never been in the mix here. Of course, a lot of that is due to rarely being invited with just five starts in 13 years as a pro. Although a Georgia native and UGA alum he attended the private boarding prep school Baylor in Chattanooga. English has three career Major Top 10’s all of which came in the U.S. Open. So we might take another look at Oakmont in June but not here. (Masters History: 5 starts, 1 MC)
Players Who Seem Destined to Be One Major Winner Kind of Guys are Brian Harman (British), Matt Fitzpatrick (US Open) and Jason Day (PGA). Before this week there have been 88 Masters Tournaments, 106 PGA Championships, 124 US Opens, and 152 British Opens for a total of 470. Do you know how many men have won two or more of them? Try 89. It’s damn hard to win one of these let alone two.
34 Brian Harman (age 38) was a very unpopular Champion Golfer of the Year in 2023 to the partisan gallery at Hoylake for reasons that were obvious. Because he was a Yank and rampaged to a six stroke win making for an uneventful Sunday. The fact he is slower than a Christmas turkey with the constant waggles, which the Brits take a dim view of, didn’t help. Harman hasn’t won since fittingly won last week in malignant winds and though we are only a year removed from that British triumph his Major campaign in 2024 was indifferent at best. Being the quintessential journeyman, he has played the Masters sporadically and not well when he has, making only two cuts in six tries. Harman is short off the tee and has had a cold putter thus far in 2025. Not recommended at all. (Masters History: 6 starts, 4 MC’s)
33 Matt Fitzpatrick has fallen all the way to 74th in the OWGR which is far off his peak of 6th in the wake of his U.S. Open win in 2022 and down 31 spots from where he finished in 2024. That Open win provides three more years (including this one) of Major qualification capital to spend so it’s too early to panic. That said, 2025 feels like a massive pivot one way or the other. Fitzpatrick is still only 30 but has been coming to The Masters as a pro annually since 2016. He tied for 7th that year and was T10 two years ago. Only missing one cut as an amateur over ten starts, he’s never been in actual contention but the course has never eaten him up either.
Despite having relatively small stature, at his peak Fitzpatrick was an elite driver both in distance and accuracy. His accuracy this season has began to rally but he has not kept up with the rest of the bruisers on Tour in length, in fact regressing by nearly 10 yards on average since 2022. In this era that is rare and frankly hard to do. He’s putting well enough to contend this week but his iron play, both on approach and short pitches/chips, is well below the standard needed to be a serious threat. (Masters History: 10 starts, 2 Top 10’s, 1 MC)
32 Jason Day (age 37) has some serious Steve Elkington vibes, fittingly being both are Aussies. Elk was also a one time Major winner (1995 PGA) and spent many weeks in the OWGR Top 10 but could not stay healthy, most notably an allergy (you can’t make this up) to grass. People forget just how formidable Day was since bursting onto the scene in 2011 by tying for 2nd in his Masters debut and followed that with another 2nd in the US Open at Congressional later that Summer. After getting his Major in the 2015 PGA at Whistling Straits, Day came roaring into Augusta as the co favorite with Jordan Spieth in 2016 having won twice that winter at Bay Hill and the Match Play but finished 10th.
The maladies afflicting him since then are too many to list but his primary issue has been recurrent vertigo. Results in the Majors since 2021 have not been good despite a 2nd at the British in 2023 in which he joined another countryman, Greg Norman, in completing the career “runner up Grand Slam”. Like a few veterans above (Scott, Garcia, Rose, DJ, and Finau) Day could get on a heater and contend this week. But he won’t win. (Masters History: 13 starts, 1 runner up, 3 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, 3 MC’s)
Americans Thought to be Eventual Stars but Have Yet to Make the Leap Include Cameron Young, Sam Burns, and Will Zalatoris
31 Cameron Young comes across to me as a stereotypical New Yorker. Which means I don’t like him. I understand that pros are doing their job so playing golf isn’t “fun” in the way it is for you and me. I know a lot of people who would trade with him though so walking around looking like he’s been constipated for six months agitates the heck out of me. As mentioned, Young has never won. Anywhere. As a pro at the major league level anyway.
Now—Young turned pro in 2019 and began regular qualification for Majors in 2022. His record over those twelve tournaments is superb and has everything besides a win including a runner up, a T3, and five Top 10’s total. My reluctance to slot him higher is based on recent play. After a T9 here last year, the rest of the Major season was a wash even though he made all four cuts. Remember that story about Max Homa? Young has came close to matching him with only marginally better results but also three straight MC’s AND he did Homa one stroke better worse at Bay Hill with an opening round 82. That included a first hole triple bogey while rocking some iPods. I bet he was listening to Dave Matthews. Young is only 27 so he has plenty of time. But he better get on his horse. (Masters History: 3 starts, 2 Top 10’s, 1 MC)
30 Sam Burns is a Louisianan through and through including All American honors for LSU. A consistent winner on Tour since 2021 and a Ryder Cup Captain’s pick in 2023, Burns has to this point had a Max Homa like experience in all the Majors. One Top 10 and only two Top 25’s in 18 starts. Burns is a fine player and still young at 28. A breakthrough will come eventually. The question is whether that is this week. I’ve maintained for awhile that putting at Augusta is overrated. Too many guys have won over the years with at best shaky flatsticks. However—a guy who makes them from everywhere can be formidable on any course.
If you made a list of players most capable of doing that you might very well start with Burns, a truly elite putter seldom out of the Top 10 in strokes gained on the greens. It gets better for Sam—he kills the ball off the tee. So as good a putter as anybody and hits it a mile. At Augusta. What’s the problem here? Burns is very streaky with his irons and this season has really struggled. On a second shot golf course where finding the right tier on those hellacious greens and proximity to the hole is everything, he has to clean that up. (Masters History: 3 starts, 2 MC’s)
29 Will Zalatoris was in the final group with Matt Fitzpatrick in the aforementioned 2022 U.S Open but bogied his 2nd and 3rd holes eventually falling 4 strokes back. He hung around and took the lead on 11 then had good birdie looks on 17 and 18 to tie Fitzpatrick but both slid by on the left. It was his second consecutive runner up in a Major having lost a playoff to Justin Thomas at the PGA the month prior. PLUS he was runner up at The Masters the year before. Still, at age 25 the future seemed bright. As philosopher Ferris Bueller once put it, life comes at you fast.
The following April Zalatoris withdrew minutes before his first round tee time and underwent almost immediate back surgery essentially missing the entirety of the 2023 season. All things considered, 2024 went about as well as could be hoped including a Top 10 here. 2025 has been just OK but he’s yet to miss a cut. Whether he can rejoin regular Major contention hinges on his ballstriking which was without peer before the injury. 2024 he understandably was well off of that pace but this season, despite no high finishes, there have been flashes of what once was. If the putter comes around… (Masters History: 3 starts, 1 Top 5, 3 Top 10’s, 0 MC’s)
The Ben Wright Memorial Foreign Invaders (scroll to the 1:54 mark—thats an hour and 54—and watch about 45 seconds from there) are Cameron Davis, Matthieu Pavon, and Robert MacIntyre
28 Cam Davis is big ol’ dude at 6’ 4” but strangely not all that long. He is a fairly late bloomer by Tour standards this being just his tenth Major in his age 30 year. He is not coming in here on the upswing with five MC’s this season including in all of his last four. The culprit (mostly) has been the big stick as he’s lost more distance to his peers and only hits about every other fairway anyway. Look, I’ve got Davis way too high here. Truthfully he oughta be behind the Koreans most likely. But I couldn’t fit him in any of my other cutesy groupings so just ignore the number by his name. (Masters History: 2 starts, 46th and T12)
27 Matthieu Pavon (age 32) tied for 12th here last year and then really impressed me at Pinehurst last summer. Playing in the penultimate group he made an early bogey and I figured he was well on his way to shooting 80. And while he never was truly in contention he never went away either and for an inexperienced player in Majors that counts for a lot in my book. Were it not for the French flag by his name I might be more bullish but other than putting he’s been pretty bad in 2025 so he’s probably too high as it is. Pavon is the first Frenchman to win on Tour since Arnaud Massy in 1907 (and that was the 07 British Open which really wasn’t “on Tour”, especially then). I can’t even name another French player except Thomas Levet who made a Ryder Cup team and of course the infamous Jean van de Velde. (Masters History: 1 start, T12)
26 Robert MacIntyre (age 28) will try to be only the second Scot to win a Green Jacket after Sandy Lyle. And he’s the only one who can with no other Scottish players competing this week. MacIntyre is returning to Augusta after a two year absence by benefit of two wins in 2024, one in America and one in Europe. He is what I would call a ‘tweener—probably good enough to contend if not win and just as probably will make the cut almost anonymously for a boring 24th place. He’s not a huge hitter but long enough and usually a good putter but it’s been abysmal this year so far. (Masters History: 2 starts, T12 and T23)
Top of the Card Contenders
25 Patrick Reed still hasn’t won on the Clown Tour where he has to beat about 6 players. He did win in Asia last November which in my eyes is Korn Ferry equivalent. If he weren’t still so young at 34 I’d put him with the ceremonial group. To his credit he always brings his best here and hasn’t missed a Major cut in awhile although he didn’t even get into either Open last year. The thing is, in his mind it’s all worth it. He and his mousy wife are no longer hassled by the “man”. The man being Ponte Vedra. *Editorial comment for the young lions out there—should a situation arise where you feel compelled to abandon your parents and family, FOR A WOMAN, and you fail to quench that insanity you’ve lost the plot. I don’t give a crap what they said about her which was probably true anyway. (Masters History: 11 starts, 1 win, 2 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, 2 MC’s)
24 Sahith Theegala has been around a little while now at age 27 and making his third consecutive Masters appearance. He was 9th here in 2023, his only Major Top 10 out of eleven starts. He’s not coming in here with great form though not for lack of trying having teed it up ten times out of fifteen PGA events. He only had one MC out of that but his best finish is 17th. Statistically Theegala is having his worst year with nothing fully clicking but at his best driver length and short game carries him. Not a guy I would expect to see taking consequential swings late Sunday. (Masters History: 2 starts, 1 Top 10, 0 MC’s)
23 Wyndham Clark would be placed in the one Major win kind of guy category by a lot of golf observers. I get that sentiment but I just think he’s got another level to reach based on not much other than a hunch. Here is my take on Wyndham and the aftermath of winning the U.S. Open in 2023 at LACC. Some guys win a big event and rather than feel vindicated become consumed with proving it was not a fluke. Most of the time that results in overwhelming self induced pressure leading to performance far below what they are capable.
I don’t have Clark on speed dial so maybe that’s not even close but I bet it at minimum played a role in what was a debacle of a 2024 Major season with three MC’s and a T56 at Pinehurst. When we last heard from Clark here he shot an opening round 73 but very confidently stated afterward, “You know we’ve got 54 holes (left). In LIV they only play 54, so I like my chances.”
Hilarious (and dead on) as that comment was, OOOF. He followed with a 78 and his season collapsed from there. This is only Clark’s second look at Augusta so there is no track record to speak of. And the truth is his Major record overall is very thin (for a 31 year old) and very bad. Of the other three Majors this is the one he could most likely grab. Very long off the tee although inaccurate, excellent chipper, occasionally a blazing putter. But? Not great with the irons since the Open win. And as we’ve said repeatedly, that’s the thing isn’t it. (Masters History: 1 start, 1 MC)
22 Akshay Bhatia is the only high schooler to ever represent the United States in the Walker Cup. Even though hardly anybody knows what the Walker Cup is (I’m not certain I’ve ever seen one shot played of it) anytime I see somebody is “the only one” in anything it gets my attention. Bhatia has played in just five Majors at age 23, four of which were last year and I would say he’s a few years away from seriously getting in the mix here. That said he’s playing well with three Top 10’s this year including a T3 at the Players. A short but accurate driver of the golf ball plus a very good iron player and a really hot putter in 2025. I say pass but he wouldn’t be the worst bet of these last 25. (Masters History: 1 start, T35)
21 Min Woo Lee (age 26) is yet another Aussie who can murder the ball and in fact is one of the longest players on Tour. He’s also a fabulous wedge player and just stared down Scottie Scheffler in Houston for his first PGA Tour win two weeks ago. Hmmmm. About all I can come up with to discourage action on Lee is that no winner of the Houston Open ever went on to win The Masters the same year. BIG caveat—that tournament has only been a Masters tune up twelve times. A quintessential player of this era, Lee just bombs it and figures out what to do with it later so long as he can find it. That’s another way to say he’s not the most accurate fella off the tee or on approaches which will probably be his undoing. There is a lot to like here however and if looking for an off the beaten path pick you could do a lot worse. (Masters History: 3 starts, 1 MC)
20 Viktor Hovland (age 27) could be slotted about anywhere on this board with easily defended justification. I can’t think of any athlete with a more positive demeanor (at least outwardly) who so obsessively chases perfection. Of all games, golf is not the one to take that approach. I could write an entire post on Hovland’s repeated and what I see as self loathing coaching changes but it’s been done better than I could a dozen times (here’s just one example).
This time last year his game was in shambles (relative to 2023 and prior) and he missed the cut after a Friday 81. He then went back to his old coach and promptly lit up Valhalla, nearly stealing the PGA from Xander Schauffele. The suck returned with MC’s at Pinehurst and Troon which continued this year including cuts at the Genesis, Bay Hill and Players. And then? Out of nowhere he won the Valspar. In the aftermath he admitted thinking he had no chance to win coming in and although smiling (the guy is always smiling, I’ll give him that) sounded about as happy as you or I would finding a $20 bill in our pocket. Well, that’s nice but why couldn’t it have been a $100!? Any result this week, from trunk slamming on Friday to getting fitted Sunday evening wouldn’t surprise me. (Masters History: 5 starts, 1 Top 10, 1 MC)
19 Sepp Straka winning would not be the marketing bonanza any of golf higher ups would seek on any Tour or any ruling body. That isn’t to suggest the 31 year old is anything other than a fine dude and terrific player but that would not exactly start a golf boom. Other than maybe in Austria I guess but probably not even there. Might I suggest at least be prepared for the possibility. Straka is red hot in 2025 with a win at The American Express, a T5 at Bay Hill, a T7 at Pebble, plus three other Top 15’s. He is short off tee but lethal with his irons and a putter that runs hot and cold. A question I’ve been asked is what matters more at Augusta, form or history? Straka’s best work here was a T16 last year so nothing indicates it’s a course he loves. But if the answer is form the list is short of those playing better. (Masters History: 3 starts, 0 MC’s)
18 Tyrell Hatton (age 33) has a well earned reputation as a complainer and being a world class dickhead. Nothing is ever good enough most especially the course he’s playing that week. Specifically the 15th hole he finds particularly bothersome. I guess we are fortunate he didn’t plant an IED under Hogan’s Bridge. Surely the 12th is sub standard as well. Another LIV guy getting inadequate preparation, hopefully he shoots a pair of 80’s and goes away. (Masters History: 8 starts, 1 Top Ten, 2 MC’s)
17 Cameron Smith (age 31) still plays golf competitively. So I am told. Who would know of course. A fun game would be hooking up Smith, Rahm, and Koepka to polygraph machines to see which one feels they most jacked up their career legacy by taking the bag. I think it would be Rahm since Koepka more or less openly says as much plus he doesn’t care whereas Rahm does. Smith? He looks like a slimy little dude that could beat a lie detector. In all seriousness, I have no idea where Smith’s game is. Of these three he’s the least talented in my mind. Here’s the truth though—Smith has went T2, T10, T3, T34, T6 here since 2020. I’d be a fool to say he can’t win so ignoring my LIV bias here is a good idea. (Masters History: 8 starts, 3 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 0 MC’s)
16 Tommy Fleetwood, or as my friends call him Skinny Colin Montgomerie, continues his evidently impossible quest to win on American soil. Not win a Major, win anything. On the Major side of it at least he has to be feeling some snakebite vibes. Consider: he has TWO 63’s in Majors, BOTH in the U.S. Open in 2018 and 2023, and BOTH in the final round. His best finishes are T3 at Augusta (2024), T5 at the PGA (2022), 2nd at the US Open (2018), and 2nd at the British (2019). There is knocking on the door and there is trying to ram through head first without a helmet.
Critics would argue that most of those finishes were backdoored, shooting low scores when well back without pressure. It’s a fair observation. The 63 in 2023 at LACC for example could not have been less meaningful. He started the day in 38th place and even with the admittedly lights out round only finished 5th. Last years 3rd here? He was 7 strokes back of Scheffler and never a threat. Can Fleetwood win is the wrong question, it’s will he? All I can tell you is he had a good winter with albeit limited play and everything in the 34 year old’s game has been dialed in. (Masters History: 8 starts, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 1 MC)
T14 Brooks Koepka (age 34) and Jon Rahm (age 30) I group these two of known Benedict Arnold character together for that reason plus I don’t know which to put over the other finding them basically interchangeable. Like with Cam Smith I have no idea how they are playing. The stats LIV puts out mean as much to me as the Congressional Budget Office forecasting the deficit. Data Golf, the best website in the history of the internet (even excluding the paid portion), has numbers you can trust but I’m not bothering with it. Scout away on your own if you like.
It wasn’t that long ago that it felt like Koepka was going to win every Major. The inevitability was the closest we’ve had to Tiger including Scheffler. That window was short and now closed but Brooks is the only LIVer to win a Major since defecting along with Bryson Dechambeau. Koepka gave an interview last week where he intimated fatherhood had softened him and maybe golf wasn’t as important. To that I say good for him. But marriage and family doesn’t often lead to better golf. There are a few who avoided a downturn (notably Nicklaus) but it’s rare. Still, if I had to bet my house on a LIV player to win Koepka would be my play. That despite having Bryson rated higher below which is mostly just because I like him better. In the end, Koepka is going to rue the day he let it slip away in the year below in what was a leaderboard for the ages.
As for Rahm, the buyers remorse going to LIV was virtually instantaneous as a torturous 2024 Major season unfolded. He salvaged some pride with a solid effort at Troon but he will be primed for a credible week. Twice have two players exchanged Green Jackets in four consecutive years which was Hogan/Snead from 1951-1954 and Palmer/Nicklaus from 1962-1965 so it wouldn’t be unprecedented for Rahm to continue the streak with Scheffler. (Masters History: Koepka 9 starts, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 2 MC’s Rahm 8 starts, 1 win, 3 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, 0 MC’s)
13 Jordan Spieth has not won a Major in 8—EIGHT!!!!—years this Summer. This is a guy that could or even should have two more Green Jackets plus either another British or the PGA he lacks to complete the career Grand Slam. With good fortune he’d hold seven Major Championships and all by the age of 24. Now 31, he’s only won twice anywhere since that Open in 2017 and not at all in three years next week. He’s ranked only 65th in the world currently! Honestly, it’s dumbfounding. And Jordan fans like my Son would point to his injured wrist as the culprit. Last season there isn’t any question he was compromised greatly by that considering it culminated in surgery over the winter. But prior to that, I don’t buy it. Spieth lost his game somehow and if you want to narrow it down to one thing that magic wand he carried that many of us call a putter transformed into a butcher knife way too often. So when his security blanket stopped bailing him out it bled into every aspect of his game
I am though optimistic of Jordan’s chances this week. His winter results, save for the Genesis, (which remember was played at Torrey Pines with US Openish rough) have been solid with two Top 10’s. Spieth is lucky he already won a US Open as his days of competing for that trophy are probably over. But Augusta? There are horses for courses and Spieth will always be confident here. Even lately at low water he’s contended twice. The last four Masters he’s went T3, MC, T4, MC. That pattern looks like he’s due. Spieth is going to get one more of these in the next ten years, might as well be this week. (Masters History: 11 starts, 1 win, 2 runner ups, 6 Top 5’s, 6 Top 10’s, 2 MC’s)
12 Xander Schauffele (age 31) won the final Major of 2024 and he also won the PGA last year. Meaning he is shooting for back to back Major wins and three of the last four. Guess how many players have won consecutive Majors (since the inaugural Masters in 1934) irrespective of calendar year? More than you would think but it’s still a short list:
Craig Wood—1941 Masters, US Open
Ben Hogan—1953 Masters, US Open, British
Arnold Palmer—1960 Masters, US Open
Lee Trevino—1971 US Open, British
Jack Nicklaus—1971 PGA, 1972 Masters, 1972 US Open
Tom Watson—1982 US Open, British
Nick Price—1994 British, PGA
Tiger Woods (Three Times)—1) 2000 US Open, British, PGA, 2001 Masters 2) 2002 Masters, US Open 3) 2006 British, PGA (Woods also won 5 of 6 between the 1999 PGA and the 2001 Masters)
Phil Mickelson—2005 PGA, 2006 Masters
Padraig Harrington—2008 British, PGA
Rory McIlroy—2014 British, PGA
Jordan Spieth—2015 Masters, US Open
That’s twelve men. So OK, it’s doable. Schauffele is at least the caliber a player of someone like Harrington. How about guys who’ve won three Majors out of four? Just look above—Hogan, Nicklaus, Woods. I don’t know about you but I can’t go there with Xander. The rib injury which shelved him for essentially the first two months of the season further diminishes my expectations. (Masters History: 7 starts, 1 runner up, 2 Top 5’s, 4 Top 10’s, 1 MC)
11 Hideki Matsuyama (age 33) was my pick last year after winning at Riviera and opened with a 76 on the way to making the cut on the number (+6) while never being within a country mile of contention. He will come in this year with a win as well, this time in the season opening Sentry. Augusta is a second shot golf course and few players are more proficient with their irons. Tee to green, Matsuyama will play well enough to contend so it’s a matter of whether his notoriously balky putter will help him out. Thus far in 2025 Hideki ranks 82nd in strokes gained on the greens which by his standards is practically unconscious. A special mention must be made too, the former champion has now made the cut in all four of the game’s marquee events in each of the last THREE seasons. I should probably have him higher. (Masters History: 13 starts, 1 win, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 1 MC)
10 Russell Henley (age 36) has been popping up as a potential winner by experts outside the usual suspects which is interesting as he has a lot of online detractors for supposedly specializing in backdoor Top 5’s. He had a fabulous winter with a T10 at the Sony, a T5 at Pebble, a T6 at the Cognizant, AND winning Arnie’s Invitational. His iron play is typically elite and he tied for 4th here two years ago. So even though not a bomber he can get it around plenty well enough to contend if properly dialed in. Win though? I could see it at Quail Hollow next month more so than here. (Masters History: 8 starts, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 1MC)
9 Ludvig Aberg—I had an extended back and forth with a douche on Twitter last year regarding Aberg’s chances to win. This fella bet a sizeable amount on the Swede and was openly boasting of the fact. I made the rather obvious observation that while Aberg was a remarkable talent and a good bet to win this one day, being a rookie made his bet very foolish. This was also his first Major period AND no 24 year old had ever won The Masters so he had three historical trends working against him. You may remember that for a long while it was me that was looking the fool until Aberg found the water on 11 Sunday showing his inexperience as always happens eventually with the newbies. Aberg won the Genesis (at Torrey Pines) and was in perfect form but has backed up some since. Masters winners who were runner up the year before has happened 9 out of 88 times, exactly 10%. So it definitely happens but that’s a pretty low correlation. I’ve been pretty sure he would be my pick this year since about last July but I had an epiphany around Valentine’s Day and have decided to go a different direction. (Masters History: 1 start, runner up)
8 Shane Lowry vindicated his entire life’s work in one glorious week by winning the 2019 British Open at Royal Portrush, the first Open in Northern Ireland in 68 years. Lowry, a native of Ireland not Northern Ireland, rendered favorite son Rory McIlroy’s immediate implosion (he made a quad 8 on the very first hole) all but forgotten. Unlike a lot of guys, Lowry has knocked on the door of other Majors since with two Top 5’s and four Top 10’s including a T3 at the 2022 Masters. He was a distant 2nd to McIlroy at Pebble Beach in February and while a shortish hitter is good enough with his irons and putter to win here. Only 4 times has a 38 year old won (Player, Hogan, Billy Casper, and Faldo) but that’s enough for me. Worth considering. (Masters History: 9 starts, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 3 MC’s)
7 Rory McIlroy is now 35 and making his 17th start which no first time winner has won from. This one is admittedly dicey. McIlroy remains at minimum one of the top 5 players in the world and has been the best player in 2025 by a lot. He can win, obviously. But sometimes failure at this place takes on a life of its own (i.e. Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller, Tom Weiskopf, Greg Norman, Ernie Els). The most starts a first time winner ever won from was Sergio Garcia in his 19th. Prior to that it was Mark O’Meara with 15, then Billy Casper with 14, and so on. In general, when it comes to Augusta you better get it early. I would bet on that trend continuing. The elbow injury that popped up out of nowhere says a lot symbolically. (Masters History: 16 starts, 1 runner up, 4 Top 5’s, 7 Top 10’s, 3 MC’s)
6 Scottie Scheffler (age 28) My Son was in a Majors pool last year that I helped him with. It was sort of similar to suicide pools you see with football. Basically we picked six players per Major with the caveat that you could only use a player once. That is my kind of deal and I had a blast trying to piece that puzzle together all Summer. Alas, I made a critical error that put us on the defensive immediately. See, I became hellbent that Scheffler was going to win the Open at Pinehurst. The reasons for that made good sense (even though he BOMBED there big time) but really aren’t important. What was important was that if we saved him for the Open we couldn’t use him at Augusta and as you know that decision was fatal.
Nevertheless, I am once again going to recommend against a Scheffler win and there are two reasons why. Defending at Augusta is rare with only three players doing so (Nicklaus in 65/66, Faldo in 89/90, Woods in 01/02). Scottie is no doubt capable of joining that exclusive club but there’s more. If he wins that would be 3 wins in his first 6 starts. The quickest to 3 wins previously is in 8 starts achieved by three men—Palmer, Nicklaus, and Woods. That’s just too much history to buck for my money. (Masters History: 5 starts, 2 wins, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 0 MC’s)
5 Justin Thomas has won two Majors and would be considered a great player by most. Not by me. Lemme explain. First I think of GREAT in a historical sense. Heck, they are all great that win Major Championships (well… …that’s another post) but I have my own barometer relative to history. They must have two or more Majors AND come from different legs of the Grand Slam. I want to see the ability to handle different set ups. Andy North and Lee Janzen both won two U.S. Open’s. You’ll be writing down names for awhile before you come to those two on an all time great list. Same with Thomas and his two PGA’s, one of which was a complete fluke anyway.
There is another thing though—and this is indicative of the reverence I have for The Masters—if a player never wins a Green Jacket they need to have at least seriously contended here a few times for legitimacy. To me, Augusta is the greatest tournament course in the world. Not the greatest test necessarily but if you can handle the back nine pressure here on Sunday you can win anywhere.
JT’s record here is, um, serviceable? He has a 4th but was never truly in the mix. That was in 2020 where he started 6 back of Dustin Johnson on Sunday then lost 2 more strokes. Hey, I’m not saying he can’t do it or won’t do it. I’m saying he hasn’t. And with his game there is really no excuse why not. At age 31 I think he has to get one of the next three. It needs to start with playing the weekend. The last two years he has not. (Masters History: 9 starts, 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10’s, 2 MC’s)
4 Bryson DeChambeau (age 31) has gained quite a fan following over the last few years one of which is me. I didn’t dislike him pre-LIV but I didn’t like him either which transitioned into near loathing after he took the money. What changed? I dunno for sure. It would be a good thesis for a doctoral candidate in one of those fields colleges offer that are useless. Or maybe a marketing whiz on Madison Avenue could explain it. Whatever the case there is no question that of the big names who left the Tour, Bryson is absolutely the only one who definitively came through the other side for the better, net worth notwithstanding.
Despite his position in my very official ranking here, I’m lukewarm on his prospects this week. DeChambeau tends to thrive on courses he can bully relative to his competition (See Winged Foot 2020). One would think that would translate to Augusta but it never has excluding his T6 here last year when he opened with a 65 and led or co-lead the first two days but didn’t break par again. I don’t think this is the same course bombers like Nicklaus and Woods used to take apart. Now understand—I’m not saying length is no longer an advantage. But these days about all of them can hammer it. My opinion is the most important skill you can have here is cloud threatening ball flight with your approaches which DeChambeau can do with anybody.
But something bridles him here. Hard to say what. The uneven lies that are abundant could play a role. Maybe he gets spooked by the greens. He makes me think of an Iron Byron or RoboCop out there so when presented with options or forced outside his mechanical comfort zone, he shrinks. Am I the one overthinking? Maybe. Let’s call this a very cautious recommendation. (Masters History: 8 starts, 1 Top 10, 2 MC’s)
3 Corey Conners is pretty obviously the darkhorse pick of this page being virtually unknown to the casual fan and in fact is nearly my favorite. Conners hits a lot of historical notes—age 33 (more age 33 winners than any other), the right amount of experience in his 8th start (average winner had made 8.3 starts), born in January (12 winners share that birth month the most of any), from Canada which has a prior winner in Mike Weir, and is the unusual player in this era who plays a draw off the tee which is probably overblown but nonetheless provides some advantage here. With only two Tour wins, I do wish that number was higher.
Well, that’s all circumstantial you say. Yeah, pretty much. How about this—Conners finished 3rd, T6, and T8 his last three starts prior to last week’s Cyclone Open in San Antonio. Meaning only 14 guys had beaten him before Sunday (I totally stole that off Twitter but can’t remember from who and I forgot to bookmark it so whoever it was, sorry for no h/t). Nothing about Conners’ game screams elite but there is no glaring weakness other than he’s not very long (yeah that’s a big one) and he just gets it in the hole.
I get it if you think this is a foolhardy roll of the dice. Think beyond what’s comfortable—a superstar doesn’t win this every year. You’ll see. And if not, comments and my DM’s are open to all. (Masters History: 7 starts, 3 Top 10’s, 2 MC’s)
2 Collin Morikawa (age 28) would be the runaway leader for hottest player on Tour, even over McIlroy, if it weren’t for that pesky win column. It’s hard to believe given how often he’s in contention but Morikawa hasn’t won in over a year. The recent inability to close may be coincidental with regression (accession?) to the mean around the corner but it is a valid concern of those with reservations on backing him.
I would suggest blocking out that noise and dive in. Here are the facts: 1) Golf is the most random game. Playing well and winning are confoundingly not necessarily intertwined. 2) No player is better on approaches than Morikawa which (stop me if you’ve heard this before) is THE key ingredient. 3) Despite being short off the tee, Morikawa has had no issues handling Augusta in five starts and was tied with Scheffler for the lead last year standing on the 9th tee. He left a ball in a greenside bunker on that hole for a double bogey then foolishly found the water on 11 for another and that was that. None of those guys made Scheffler sweat much that’s for sure. The point is these things usually come around and even out. I have no idea if he’ll win but my premonition is Morikawa is due. (Masters History: 5 starts, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 0 MC’s)
The Winner
This is a guy I am not a fan of due to his antics at the last Ryder Cup and his torturous pace of play among several reasons. He has a decidedly mediocre record, relative to a highly ranked player, both at Augusta and the Majors as a whole with only two Top 5’s and five Top 10’s in 31 major starts. But he checks more boxes than anyone else. Consider:
1) 33 years old (More players have won aged 33 than any other—9 times—with the average being 32)
2) American (73% of winners were Red, White, and Blue)
3) A California native (Only Texas has produced more wins and winners—15 and 9 versus 12 and 6)
4) Has not won a major (60% of Masters winners had not won a Major previously)
5) Making his 9th Masters start (The median starts for all winners is 7 with the mean being 8.3)
6) Has 8 PGA Tour wins (The median number of wins for first time Masters winners is 8 with a mean of 11.4)
Your local police department composite sketch artist would draw:
1 Patrick Cantlay
Like with Conners above those are serendipitous historical markers that nonetheless indicate a pattern whether benign or not. But let’s look with deeper substance.
Clearly there are reasons to be suspect of a Cantlay win. He’s been in the Sunday mix here only once in 2019, taking a share of the lead after an eagle at 15 on a wildly competitive and historically deep leaderboard. Bogies followed on 17 and 18 with the end result being 3 strokes back of Tiger Woods. I’ve harped on the second shot aspect of ANGC and downplayed the impact of putting for two years now. Allow me to supply some balance—that course requires players to repeatedly jar slick 5 foot par putts like no other and a reasonable case can be made that Cantlay lacks the constitution for that. To me, that’s about all there is to it. Scottie Scheffler is known to be a schizophrenic putter but I don’t think he’s missed a tester as described above the entire time he’s been coming here. Cantlay has to find that level to win a Major especially here.
On the plus side which is where I’m choosing to land Cantlay stands behind few players tee to green. He’s a top 5 mid to long iron player and can hit it a mile high to access tucked flags. He is also an excellent lag putter which may be the most underrated skill a player can have here (Will Zalatoris is SO similar in both respects). There are three stats which typically get lost in the new math of strokes gained—Par 5 scoring, proximity to the hole from 175-225 yards, and bogey avoidance. Cantlay has been among the leaders on Tour in these areas practically since he got his card. I’m counting on a good week in those carve outs to become not a shocking but mildly surprising new Champion.
(Masters History: 8 starts, 1 Top 10, 2 MC’s)
Jason