*This is an expanded version of a post that originally ran at TonyBasilio.com on September 10th
With another scrimmage week on tap this seemed like a good time to present my cautionary tale of 5* Quarterbacks over the years. This hindsight could be applied to any position on the field but there aren't many more interesting things in sports than trying to figure out why one QB succeeds and another does not. It would certainly appear we have dodged what I would almost call a curse that has often accompanied the 5* burden with the thus far sublime Nicholaus Iamaleava. As you will see and probably remember when recalling these names, it doesn't often go this way. In fact, Iamaleava is looking to be a bonafide unicorn. Take a walk with me down memory lane if you will. These are the quarterbacks the 247 Composite considered to be consensus 5*'s year by year since 2000. For most of these players I've inserted a Tennessee quarterback of the past for comparison sake. I am comparing primarily from a production point of view rather than stylistically. None are perfect analogies and a few are a stretch but the intent is to allow for a rough idea of what the average 5* QB delivers on.
2000
Brock Berlin—Florida: Stuck behind Rex Grossman at Florida so transferred to Miami and was decent to good. Undrafted but started 1 NFL game for the Rams. Second Team ACC. 26 starts in 4 years. UT Comp: Branndon Stewart
Jeff Smoker—Michigan St: 3 year starter, left school as fifth leading passer by yardage in B1G history and was 2nd team B1G. 6th round pick of Rams. UT Comp: Casey Clausen
Chance Mock—Texas: Sat behind Chris Simms and Major Applewhite for 3 years. Started year 4 but eventually shared time with Vince Young and played hardly any year 5. BUST. Undrafted. UT Comp: Nathan Peterman
Casey Clausen—Tennessee: 34-10 as a starter and 14-1 on the road as 4 year starter. Undrafted.
Jason Campbell—Auburn: Mediocre at Auburn until year 4 which was an unbeaten season. 1st team SEC and 2004 SEC OPOY. 1st round draft pick of the Redskins and 25th overall. UT Comp: Tee Martin
2001
Brodie Croyle—Alabama: Decent career but injury plagued at a time of revolving coaches at Bama. 3rd round pick of the Chiefs. 5 year career as a backup. UT Comp: Tyler Bray
Joe Mauer—Florida St: N/A, Baseball
DJ Shockley—Georgia: Redshirted after losing job to David Greene who was a redshirt himself and a year older. 1st team SEC as a senior. 7th round pick of Falcons. UT Comp: Tony Robinson
Cecil Howard—Syracuse: Highest rated Syracuse recruit of all time to this day but never played a down for the Orangemen or any other D1 program: BUST. UT Comp: Harrison Bailey.
2002
Vince Young—Texas: Maxwell winner, 1st team All American, 30-2 as a starter, National Championship, 3rd Overall pick. UT Comp: Hendon Hooker
Ben Olson—UCLA: Constantly hurt. BUST. UT Comp: Moses Collins
Marcus Vick—Virginia Tech: Had as many criminal charges as touchdown passes. BUST. UT Comp: Brent Schaeffer (on the field only)
Trent Edwards—Stanford: Injury riddled at Stanford but when healthy was solid in 2005. 3rd round pick of the Bills and had a five year career almost solely as a backup. UT Comp: Jonathan Crompton
James Banks—Tennessee: Converted to WR and it didn’t end well. BUST.
Justin Zwick—Ohio St: Made a few starts but mostly was a backup to Troy Smith. BUST. UT Comp: Joey Matthews
2003
Kyle Wright—Miami: Very up and down career but mostly down. Undrafted. UT Comp: Jeff Francis
Chris Leak—Florida: 2nd team SEC three times, National Championship. Undrafted. UT Comp: Condredge Holloway
Robert Lane—OleMiss: A completely forgotten pre-clone of Tim Tebow. Followed Eli Manning and was eventually moved to TE under Ed Orgeron. BUST. UT Comp: None
2004
Rhett Bomar—Oklahoma: A very promising career was derailed by NCAA violations where Bomar was employed and taking payment for watching the grass grow from a car dealership owned by an OU booster. Bob Stoops dismissed him and he played three years at SamHoustonSt. 5th round pick of the Giants. UT Comp: None
Xavier Lee—FloridaSt: Never seized the starting job despite multiple chances. BUST. Undrafted. UT Comp: Rick Clausen
Anthony Morelli—PennSt: Mediocre two year starter with a propensity for turnovers. FUN FACT—Morelli was the starting QB for the PennSt team that beat Tennessee 20-10 in the 2007 Outback Bowl. Undrafted. UT Comp: Matt Simms
Chad Henne—Michigan: Excellent college quarterback with a memory marred by an 0-4 record versus OhioSt plus he was the starter for the AppalachianSt fiasco. 1st team all B1G, 2nd round pick of the Dolphins. UT Comp: Casey Clausen
Matt Tuiasosopo—Washington: N/A, Baseball
Bobby Reid—OklahomaSt: Very good Sophomore season but was eventually demoted to back up as a Junior. Remember Mike Gundy’s infamous “I’m a man, I’m 40!” rant? Reid was the player in question whom he was defending. Finished at TexasSouthern. Undrafted. UT Comp: Sterling Henton
2005
Mark Sanchez—USC: Sanchez was a full time starter only one year for the Trojans and was named 1st team Pac-10. He parlayed that into the 5th overall draft pick of the Jets where he is most remembered for the “buttfumble”. 6 of his 10 year NFL career was as a backup with four different teams. UT Comp: Heath Shuler
Ryan Perrilloux—LSU: My skepticism for hyped high school kids has direct roots right here. Only two other players on this list arrived on campus with as much fanfare. Like our own Nico, Perrilloux was redshirted then sat behind JaMarcus Russell and Matt Flynn in year 2. Seemingly under investigation for one thing after another his entire stay in Baton Rouge, Perrilloux drew the starting assignment for an injured Flynn in the 2007 SECCG versus Tennessee, the second time an LSU backup would beat UT in Atlanta (Matt Mauck 2001). Perrilloux never made it to Spring practice, dismissed by Les Miles for more reported reasons than I have space to type. He transferred to JacksonvilleSt (and served suspension time there too) and was undrafted. EPIC BUST. UT Comp: James Banks (which is unfair to Banks and says it all)
2006
Matthew Stafford—Georgia: Three year starter and first team All American as a Junior before turning pro. Number 1 overall draft pick of the Lions. Spent 12 years there before being traded to the Rams and winning the elusive Super Bowl. Possible Hall of Famer. UT Comp: Peyton Manning
Mitch Mustain—Arkansas: Remember what I just said about the hype surrounding Perrilloux? Well Mustain is our second representative with even less production albeit far better behavior. He is probably remembered in Tennessee as much as his native Arkansas for my aged folk as Fulmer put on a full press for him but came up empty. Which is just as well since Mustain couldn’t play anywhere near to the level expected. The byproduct of Mustain’s recruitment was it launched his coach at Springdale High School into the collegiate coaching space. That man of course is Gus Malzahn who was hired as the offensive coordinator by Houston Nutt to entice Mustain. After one year in Fayetteville with sporadic starts and mediocre numbers, Mustain bolted for USC after Malzahn took the OC job with Tulsa. There he sat behind Mark Sanchez and then Matt Barkley. Undrafted. BUST. UT Comp: John Rattay
Tim Tebow—Florida: Tebow is often said to be the greatest CFB QB of all time if not the greatest player of all time. This is preposterous of course but if judging by pelts on the wall it’s a reasonable position to take. Especially considering they played the kid out of position. A first round pick of the Broncos it was seen very quickly that NFL QB was not in the cards. UT Comp: Peyton Manning
2007
Jimmy Clausen—NotreDame: Here we have candidate #3 on the all overhyped team. Remember that private coach he had running around telling everyone “Jimmy will be the LeBron James of football?” Clausen is an example of what can happen when a wealthy father will spend every dime he has if necessary to force celebrity on his offspring. I can’t say he was a bust though. He was a two year full time starter for the Irish and a 2nd round pick of the Panthers. UT Comp: Heath Shuler
Ryan Mallett—Michigan: Mallett left Michigan after one year for his home state of Arkansas and excelled in Bobby Petrino’s offense. Was 2nd team SEC twice and a 3rd round pick of the Patriots. RIP. UT Comp: Hendon Hooker
Tyrod Taylor—VirginiaTech: ACC POY in 2010. 6th round pick of the Ravens and is in the league to this day as the back up to Aaron Rodgers for the Jets. UT Comp: Erik Ainge
Aaron Corp—USC: Corp was one of three 5* QB’s on the SouthernCal roster at one time along with Mustain and Matt Barkley. After losing the starting job to the freshman Barkley, Corp transferred to FCS Richmond where he was the definition of average. Undrafted. BUST. UT Comp: Justin Worley
Cam Newton—Florida: Florida people might call Newton a bust. Too bad for them because at Auburn Newton was the most valuable player I have ever seen in my life outside of Herschel Walker and Michael Vick. Heisman winner and National Champion. #1 overall pick of the Panthers (ironically ending Jimmy Clausen’s career) and an eventual NFL MVP. UT Comp: Hendon Hooker
John Brantley—Florida: Here again we have three 5*’s on one roster with Brantley, Newton, and Tim Tebow. Why the heck would both Brantley and Newton go there in the same class, especially with Tebow already there? Kids are really, REALLY stupid sometimes. Brantley was a legacy recruit is about all you can figure and he did end up starting for one year in Will Muschamp’s maiden season. Undrafted. UT Comp: Darryl Dickey
2008
Terrelle Pryor—Ohio State: In the conversation with Perrilloux, Mustain, and Clausen for insufferable hype. Maybe even exceeds all three as I think about it. Was productive when not suspended and his proclivity for trouble ended Jim Tressel’s tOSU tenure. Like Tebow, was out of position at QB which the NFL eventually rectified. UT Comp: Josh Dobbs
Dayne Crist—NotreDame: Crist was decent as a sophomore but benched as a junior after 1 game by Brian Kelly. He then matriculated to Kansas reuniting with Charlie Weis who had recruited him at NotreDame. He finished the 2012 season as the lowest rated QB in FBS—116 out of 116. BUST. Undrafted. UT Comp: AJ Suggs
EJ Manuel—FloridaSt: Two year full time starter and 25-6 overall at FSU. 2nd team ACC as a senior. 16th overall pick of the Bills. UT Comp: Andy Kelly
2009
Matt Barkley—USC: Four year starter. 2nd team PAC-12, 3rd team All American. 4th round pick of the Eagles. UT Comp: Casey Clausen
Russell Shepard—LSU: Compared to Percy Harvin as an athlete and was predictably converted to a RB/WR hybrid almost immediately but wasn't much at that either with 52 career receptions and 572 rushing yards. BUST. Undrafted but stuck around awhile in the league as a special teamer. UT Comp: James Banks
Garrett Gilbert—Texas: Gilbert was the guy who took over in the 2010 BCS Championship versus Alabama after Colt McCoy was injured. He threw FOUR interceptions plus lost a fumble. That propensity for turnovers carried over when he took over as the starter the following year and Texas went 5-7. After a demotion he transferred to SMU and it was more of the same. Was somehow drafted in round 6 by the Rams but never really stuck with any team. UT Comp: AJ Suggs
Aaron Murray—Georgia: All time SEC leader in TD passes. Four year starter. 5th round pick of the Chiefs. UT Comp: Erik Ainge
Tajh Boyd—Clemson: We like to talk around these parts about how Clemson stole our program. Well it started right here. Lane Kiffin was the gift that kept giving for 15 years. ACC POY, 1st team All American, 6th round pick of the Jets. UT Comp: Andy Kelly
2010
Phillip Sims—Alabama: Redshirted, sat behind AJ McCarron for a year, then transferred to Virginia. Flunked out there and finished with DII Winston-Salem State. BUST. Undrafted. UT Comp: Moses Collins
2011
Jeff Driskel—Florida: I remember Driskel lighting Tennessee up in 2012 thinking he was a lock to win a Heisman. Was all downhill from 2013 on after he broke his leg (against UT) then got benched for Treon Harris in 2014. He finished at LATech and was a 6th round pick of the 49ers. He’s still in the league, running third team with the Washington football team. UT Comp: Jonathan Crompton
Braxton Miller—OhioSt: Two time B1G MVP, 2nd team All American, National Champion. Ended up converting to H-back due to a throwing shoulder injury. 3rd round pick of the Texans. UT Comp: Condredge Holloway
2012
Jameis Winston—FloridaSt: Heisman winner, National Championship, #1 overall pick of the Buccaneers. UT Comp: Nico Iamaleava (tempting fate here)
Gunner Kiel—NotreDame: Kiel was a diva before that word became fashionable, committing to Indiana then LSU then finally signing with NotreDame. He was 4th string as a freshman and promptly bolted for Cincinnati. After sitting out a year was very good in 2014 but was constantly hurt the following season. He was then demoted to 3rd string as a fifth year Senior. Undrafted. UT Comp: Matt Simms
2013
Max Browne—USC: Started one game in four seasons before transferring to Pitt. He won the starting job but it only lasted three games before getting benched. BUST. Undrafted. UT Comp: John Rattay
Christian Hackenberg—PennSt: Three year starter and was very good as a Freshman. Awful as a Sophomore and mid as a Junior. Somehow drafted by the Jets in the 2nd round. UT Comp: Jeff Francis
2014
Kyle Allen—TexasA&M: Seized the starting job midway through his Freshman year but was demoted to 3rd team after 7 games as a Sophomore. Transferred to Houston and was benched after three games there as well. BUST. Undrafted but is with the Steelers today. UT Comp: Nick Stephens
2015
Josh Rosen—UCLA: Infamously one of the all time NFL busts as the 10th overall pick of the Cardinals. At UCLA that was hardly the case although he was a BIT overhyped which is easy to say in hindsight. UT Comp: Heath Shuler
Blake Barnett—Alabama: Redshirted, then was the nominal starter the next season but was benched for Jalen Hurts before halftime of game one. Transferred to ArizonaSt and threw five passes as a backup. Finished at USF. EPIC BUST. UT Comp: Harrison Bailey
Kyler Murray—TexasA&M: Heisman winner (albeit after a transfer to OU) and #1 overall pick of the Cardinals, ironically effectively ending Rosen’s career after one season. UT Comp: Hendon Hooker
2016
Shea Patterson—OleMiss: Was decent to very good at OleMiss for two years before fleeing for Michigan when the NCAA dropped the hammer on Hugh Freeze. Was more of the same in Ann Arbor with periods of brilliance combined with a lot of just OK. Undrafted and is in the CFL today. UT Comp: Branndon Stewart
Jacob Eason—Georgia: Earned the starting job early in his Freshman year. Suffered a knee injury in game one of his Sophomore year, was replaced by Jake Fromm who never relinquished QB1. Transferred to Washington where he was excellent for one season. 4th round pick of the Colts. UT Comp: Tyler Bray
2017
Davis Mills—Stanford: Statistically, very meh. Only saw action in two seasons and the last was the COVID year which meant 5 games for Stanford. 3rd round pick of the Texans and backs up CJ Stroud today. UT Comp: Steve Alatorre
Hunter Johnson—Clemson: Unintentionally hilarious but sad career. Transferred to Northwestern after only one year due to presumably limited playing time. At Northwestern he was absolutely awful, never earning the starting job until year 3 and he was benched after the third game. Johnson then transferred BACK to Clemson for the purposes of being a GA. EPIC BUST. Undrafted. UT Comp: Harrison Bailey
Tua Tagovailoa—Alabama: Maxwell Award, SEC POY, All American, National Championship. 5th overall pick of the Dolphins. UT Comp: Heath Shuler
2018
Trevor Lawrence—Clemson: The most infamous kid born to be a Vol that ended up at Clemson. Kinda weird he never won the Heisman. I think most fans would absent mindedly say he did. 1st overall pick of the Jaguars. UT Comp: Peyton Manning
Justin Fields—OhioSt: Here we have another genius who went to a program already stacked at QB when they can only play one at a time. Salvaged his career by transferring to tOSU and was 2X B1G POY. 11th overall pick of the Bears. UT Comp: Hendon Hooker
JT Daniels—USC: In addition to USC, Daniels played for Georgia, WestVirginia, and Rice. He wasn’t awful anywhere so you’d think if he had laid down roots maybe things would’ve worked out. At the same time, no one seemed to be real anxious to keep him around either… Undrafted. UT Comp: NONE
2019
Spencer Rattler—Oklahoma: Rattler was a whole lot better than people give him credit for. Especially at SouthCarolina. That was a 4-8 team both years he was there without him. I bet he gets a legit crack at a starting NFL job eventually. 5th round choice of the Saints. UT Comp: None
Bo Nix—Auburn: Nix should be a cautionary tale for fans always looking for a better deal. Barn people ran the kid out of town, a legacy player at that, and he became a first round pick at Oregon for the Broncos. Maybe he never develops on the Plains but he’d have been a heckuva lot better option than Payton Thorne. UT Comp: Hendon Hooker
2020
Bryce Young—Alabama: Heisman winner, SEC POY, All American, National Champion, #1 overall draft pick. I doubt it ever works out in the NFL because he’s too small but for my money Young is the best quarterback in Tide history. UT Comp: Peyton Manning
DJ Uiagalelei—Clemson: TBD
2021
Quinn Ewers—OhioSt: TBD
Caleb Williams—Oklahoma: Heisman winner, Unanimous All American, PAC-12 POY after following Lincoln Riley to USC. #1 overall pick of the Bears. UT Comp: Hendon Hooker
Sam Huard—Washington: TBD
Brock Vandagriff—Georgia: TBD
JJ McCarthy—Michigan: 1st team B1G, National Champion, 10th overall pick of the Vikings. UT Comp: Tee Martin
Kyle McCord—OhioSt: TBD
2022
Cade Klubnik—Clemson: TBD
Conner Weigman—TexasA&M: TBD
Ty Simpson—Alabama: TBD
Drew Allar—PennSt: TBD
2023
Arch Manning—Texas: TBD
Nico Iamaleava—Tennessee: TBD
Dante Moore—UCLA: TBD
Jackson Arnold—Oklahoma: TBD
Malachi Nelson—USC: TBD
2024
Julian Sayin—OhioSt: TBD
DJ Lagway—Florida: TBD
Dylan Raiola—Nebraska: TBD
There are 17 quarterbacks from the 2020 through 2024 classes that are still in school plus the 2 baseball guys which we will exclude. That leaves 65 with complete college careers that can be fully evaluated.
6 of 65 were Heisman winners, 9%
14 of 65 were All Americans (1st, 2nd, or 3rd team), 22%
10 of 65 won National Championships, 15%
17 of 65 were 1st round picks, 26% (7 went #1 overall—Stafford, Newton, Winston, Murray, Lawrence, Young, Williams: 11%)
28 of 65 were undrafted, 43%
18 of 65 were BUSTS providing no value as a QB, 28%
My purpose here is to illustrate the many, many ways these things can get turned upside down. If Iamaleava’s spectacular start continues the young man, the UT program, and we as fans should feel extremely thankful. He wisely chose the perfect system with Josh Heupel for his skill set. For me personally, I can count on one hand the number of QB’s EVEN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD of Nico’s throwing mechanics—Dan Marino, John Elway, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler. Maybe Troy Aikman. That is it and from what I’ve seen the last two weeks Nico is better than even them from a purely throwing the ball perspective RIGHT NOW. “Arm talent” is the latest pseudo scout buzzword. Nico has no peer in that department. Beyond just pure arm strength—and it looks like he’s throwing a baseball out there—its the effortless delivery with peak efficiency, no wasted motion, and a lightning release. It's why guys like Aaron Murray, Booger McFarland, and Urban Meyer have been crapping their pants watching this unfold despite it being just two games. If you are a dreamer, dream big because we have something here.
With NCState roadkill in the rearview mirror, let’s update our Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s)
Penalties
2023: 126/133 in the nation at 68 yards per game
2022: 124/131 in the nation at 69 yards per game
2024: 88/134 at 61 yards per game
3rd Down Conversions
2023: 46/133 in the nation at 42%
2022: 43/131 in the nation at 42%
2024: 16/134 at 55%
3rd Down Conversions Allowed
2023: 43/133 in the nation at 37%
2022: 32/131 in the nation at 34%
2024: T4/134 at 15%
Turnover Margin
2023: 23/133 in the nation at +.46 per game
2022: 11/131 in the nation at +.85 per game
2024: T41/134 at +.50 per game
4th Down Conversions
2023: 111/133 in the nation at 39% (7 of 18)
2022: 12/131 in the nation at 67% (22 of 33)
2024: T1/115 at 100% (2 of 2)
4th Down Conversions Allowed
2023: 3/133 in the nation at 27% (7 of 26)
2022: 24/131 in the nation at 42% (14 of 33)
2024: T1/109 at 0% (0 of 2)
Touchdown Rate in the RedZone
2023: 106/133 at 52% (28 TD’s on 54 RedZone trips)
2022: FIRST in the nation at 79% (53 TD’s on 67 RedZone trips)
2024: 50/130 at 69% (9 TD's on 13 RedZone trips)
Touchdown Rate Allowed in the RedZone
2023: 45/133 at 56% (23 TD’s allowed on 41 RedZone penetrations)
2022: 28/131 at 52% (27 TD’s allowed on 52 RedZone penetrations)
2024: 1/122 at 0% (0 TD’s allowed on 4 RedZone penetrations)
And our post Week 2 Top 25 with UT breaching the Top 12
(Remember this is a current resume ranking rather than predictive using playoff qualifying principles)
1 Texas
2 USC
3 Miami
4 OklahomaSt
5 Georgia
6 Alabama
7 Tennessee
8 PennSt
9 Cal
10 Utah
11 Illinois
12 BoiseSt
13 BostonCollege
14 BYU
15 MichiganSt
16 Oregon
17 ArizonaSt
18 Vanderbilt
19 NorthCarolina
20 Nebraska
21 OhioSt
22 Oklahoma
23 OleMiss
24 Missouri
25 Syracuse